Prediction Audit: Curzon Ashton vs Bradford (Park Avenue) Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Curzon Ashton

Sep 05, 2026 - 12:00

1 1.34

2 1.26

xG Accuracy: 74%

Bradford (Park Avenue)

The model missed the final outcome (Bradford (Park Avenue) win 1–2).

The model had projected Curzon Ashton at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Curzon Ashton Bradford (Park Avenue) ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Curzon Ashton	37.1%	59.7%	-22.6 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	22.4%	+7.2 pp	Model Higher
Bradford (Park Avenue)	33.3%	17.9%	+15.4 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Curzon Ashton's win probability at 59.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 22.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Bradford (Park Avenue) win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
1X2: model leaned Curzon Ashton; match finished Bradford (Park Avenue)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Curzon Ashton by 22.6 percentage points (59.7% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 05, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Curzon Ashton 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Bradford (Park Avenue) 33.4%
- xG · Curzon Ashton 1.34 — Bradford (Park Avenue) 1.26
Sep 05, 2026 · 11:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Curzon Ashton 1.50 · Draw 4.00 · Bradford (Park Avenue) 5.00
- Implied 1X2 · Curzon Ashton 59.7% · Draw 22.4% · Bradford (Park Avenue) 17.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
Sep 05, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Curzon Ashton 1.50 · Draw 4.00 · Bradford (Park Avenue) 5.00
- Implied 1X2 · Curzon Ashton 59.7% · Draw 22.4% · Bradford (Park Avenue) 17.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
Sep 05, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Bradford (Park Avenue) win · 1–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (23 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6135347

Closing Odds 1.5

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Bradford (Park Avenue) win · Curzon Ashton 1–2 Bradford (Park Avenue)

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: FA Cup
Fixture: Curzon Ashton vs Bradford (Park Avenue)
Kickoff: 2026-09-05 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Curzon Ashton 1.34 — Bradford (Park Avenue) 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.4%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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