Predictions / Football / Oman. FA Cup / Al Musannah vs Ibri

Prediction Audit: Al Musannah vs Ibri Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al Musannah Al Musannah
Oct 01, 2026 - 14:25
2 1.33
2 1.27
xG Accuracy: 68%
Ibri Ibri

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Al Musannah at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Al Musannah Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Al Musannah higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Al Musannah -13.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Al Musannah 36.6% 50.5% -13.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.9% +5.8 pp Model Higher
Ibri 33.8% 25.6% +8.2 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Al Musannah's win probability at 50.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 13.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Al Musannah than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Al Musannah by 13.9 percentage points (50.5% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Oct 01, 2026 · 14:24 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Al Musannah 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Ibri 33.8%
    • xG · Al Musannah 1.33 — Ibri 1.27
  2. Oct 01, 2026 · 13:54 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Al Musannah 1.75 · Draw 3.70 · Ibri 3.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Al Musannah 50.5% · Draw 23.9% · Ibri 25.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Oct 01, 2026 · 14:24 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Al Musannah 1.75 · Draw 3.70 · Ibri 3.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Al Musannah 50.5% · Draw 23.9% · Ibri 25.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Oct 01, 2026 · 14:25 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 30/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 25, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10755610

Closing Odds 1.75
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Al Musannah 2–2 Ibri
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: FA Cup
  • Fixture: Al Musannah vs Ibri
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-01 14:25:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Al Musannah 1.33 — Ibri 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.4% · Probability edge: +4.4 pts · Est. EV: +5.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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