Predictions / Football / Oman. FA Cup / Al-Nahda vs Saham

Prediction Audit: Al-Nahda vs Saham Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al-Nahda Al-Nahda
Sep 21, 2026 - 13:35
1 1.42
1 1.18
xG Accuracy: 85%
Saham Saham

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Al-Nahda at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Al-Nahda Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Al-Nahda higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Al-Nahda -22.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Al-Nahda 40.9% 63.0% -22.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 23.0% +6.4 pp Model Higher
Saham 29.7% 14.1% +15.6 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Al-Nahda's win probability at 63.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 22.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Al-Nahda; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Al-Nahda by 22.1 percentage points (63.0% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 21, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Al-Nahda 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Saham 29.6%
    • xG · Al-Nahda 1.42 — Saham 1.18
  2. Sep 21, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Al-Nahda 1.43 · Draw 3.92 · Saham 6.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Al-Nahda 63.0% · Draw 23.0% · Saham 14.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 21, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Al-Nahda 1.43 · Draw 3.92 · Saham 6.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Al-Nahda 63.0% · Draw 23.0% · Saham 14.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 21, 2026 · 13:35 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 15, 2026 · 02:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8838321

Closing Odds 1.43
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Al-Nahda 1–1 Saham
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: FA Cup
  • Fixture: Al-Nahda vs Saham
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-21 13:35:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Al-Nahda 1.42 — Saham 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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