The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Tigres de Alica at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Tigres de Alica Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres de Alica | 36.1% | 61.5% | -25.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 22.9% | +6.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Lobos ULMX | 34.2% | 15.6% | +18.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Tigres de Alica's win probability at 61.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 25.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Tigres de Alica; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Tigres de Alica by 25.4 percentage points (61.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tigres de Alica 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Lobos ULMX 34.2%
- xG · Tigres de Alica 1.32 — Lobos ULMX 1.28
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tigres de Alica 1.44 · Draw 3.87 · Lobos ULMX 5.69
- Implied 1X2 · Tigres de Alica 61.5% · Draw 22.9% · Lobos ULMX 15.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tigres de Alica 1.44 · Draw 3.87 · Lobos ULMX 5.69
- Implied 1X2 · Tigres de Alica 61.5% · Draw 22.9% · Lobos ULMX 15.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 02:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (25 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera Premier — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irapuato | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Celaya | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Racing de Veracruz | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Zacatepec 1948 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Pioneros de Cancún | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Reboceros La Piedad | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Los Cabos United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Tigres de Alica | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Montañeses | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Deportiva Venados | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Jaguares de Chiapas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Tapachula | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Tritons Vallarta | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 14 | Chapulineros | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 15 | Lobos ULMX | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 | Cordobés | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 17 | H2O Purepechas | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Inter Playa del Carmen | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing de Veracruz | 4 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 10 |
| 2 | Irapuato | 5 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 15 |
| 3 | Pioneros de Cancún | 4 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 9 |
| 4 | Celaya | 5 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 13 |
| 5 | Montañeses | 5 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Reboceros La Piedad | 4 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 7 | Tigres de Alica | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 | Deportiva Venados | 4 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Zacatepec 1948 | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 10 |
| 10 | Los Cabos United | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
| 11 | Jaguares de Chiapas | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Lobos ULMX | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 13 | Chapulineros | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 |
| 14 | Tapachula | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 |
| 15 | Tritons Vallarta | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Cordobés | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 |
| 17 | Inter Playa del Carmen | 4 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 1 |
| 18 | H2O Purepechas | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 |
