Prediction Audit: Lobos ULMX vs Los Cabos United Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lobos ULMX

Sep 13, 2026 - 01:00

1 1.32

2 1.28

xG Accuracy: 75%

Los Cabos United

The model missed the final outcome (Los Cabos United win 1–2).

The model had projected Lobos ULMX at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Lobos ULMX Los Cabos United ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Lobos ULMX	36.1%	47.1%	-11.0 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	26.4%	+3.2 pp	Aligned
Los Cabos United	34.2%	26.4%	+7.8 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Lobos ULMX's win probability at 47.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Los Cabos United win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Lobos ULMX than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
1X2: model leaned Lobos ULMX; match finished Los Cabos United

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Lobos ULMX by 11.0 percentage points (47.1% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 13, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Lobos ULMX 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Los Cabos United 34.2%
- xG · Lobos ULMX 1.32 — Los Cabos United 1.28
Sep 13, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Lobos ULMX 1.91 · Draw 3.40 · Los Cabos United 3.40
- Implied 1X2 · Lobos ULMX 47.1% · Draw 26.4% · Los Cabos United 26.4%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
Sep 13, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Lobos ULMX 1.91 · Draw 3.40 · Los Cabos United 3.40
- Implied 1X2 · Lobos ULMX 47.1% · Draw 26.4% · Los Cabos United 26.4%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
Sep 13, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Los Cabos United win · 1–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (11 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 45/100

Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 00:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7418722

Closing Odds 1.91

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Los Cabos United win · Lobos ULMX 1–2 Los Cabos United

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primera Premier
Fixture: Lobos ULMX vs Los Cabos United
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 01:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Lobos ULMX 1.32 — Los Cabos United 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera Premier — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Irapuato	5	5	0	0	15
2	Celaya	5	4	1	0	13
3	Racing de Veracruz	4	3	1	0	10
4	Zacatepec 1948	5	3	1	1	10
5	Pioneros de Cancún	4	3	0	1	9
6	Reboceros La Piedad	4	3	0	1	9
7	Los Cabos United	5	3	0	2	9
8	Tigres de Alica	5	2	2	1	8
9	Montañeses	5	2	1	2	7
10	Deportiva Venados	4	1	2	1	5
11	Jaguares de Chiapas	3	1	0	2	3
12	Tapachula	4	1	0	3	3
13	Tritons Vallarta	4	0	2	2	2
14	Chapulineros	5	0	2	3	2
15	Lobos ULMX	4	0	1	3	1
16	Cordobés	4	0	1	3	1
17	H2O Purepechas	4	0	1	3	1
18	Inter Playa del Carmen	4	0	1	3	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Racing de Veracruz	4	15	5	+10	10
2	Irapuato	5	13	4	+9	15
3	Pioneros de Cancún	4	12	5	+7	9
4	Celaya	5	11	4	+7	13
5	Montañeses	5	9	10	-1	7
6	Reboceros La Piedad	4	8	4	+4	9
7	Tigres de Alica	5	8	6	+2	8
8	Deportiva Venados	4	8	7	+1	5
9	Zacatepec 1948	5	6	5	+1	10
10	Los Cabos United	5	6	5	+1	9
11	Jaguares de Chiapas	3	3	5	-2	3
12	Lobos ULMX	4	3	8	-5	1
13	Chapulineros	5	3	10	-7	2
14	Tapachula	4	3	11	-8	3
15	Tritons Vallarta	4	2	4	-2	2
16	Cordobés	4	2	7	-5	1
17	Inter Playa del Carmen	4	2	9	-7	1
18	H2O Purepechas	4	1	6	-5	1