Predictions / Football / Croatia. Cup / Segesta Sisak vs NK Osijek

Prediction Audit: Segesta Sisak vs NK Osijek Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Segesta Sisak Segesta Sisak
Sep 09, 2026 - 14:30
3 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 57%
NK Osijek NK Osijek

The model missed the final outcome (Segesta Sisak win 3–1).

The model had projected NK Osijek at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 NK Osijek Segesta Sisak ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices NK Osijek higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: NK Osijek -22.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Segesta Sisak 33.8% 18.1% +15.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 23.0% +6.7 pp Model Higher
NK Osijek 36.6% 58.9% -22.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates NK Osijek's win probability at 58.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 22.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Segesta Sisak win 3–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned NK Osijek; match finished Segesta Sisak

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on NK Osijek by 22.3 percentage points (58.9% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 09, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Segesta Sisak 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · NK Osijek 36.6%
    • xG · Segesta Sisak 1.27 — NK Osijek 1.33
  2. Sep 09, 2026 · 14:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Segesta Sisak 4.90 · Draw 3.87 · NK Osijek 1.51
    • Implied 1X2 · Segesta Sisak 18.1% · Draw 23.0% · NK Osijek 58.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 09, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Segesta Sisak 4.90 · Draw 3.87 · NK Osijek 1.51
    • Implied 1X2 · Segesta Sisak 18.1% · Draw 23.0% · NK Osijek 58.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 09, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Segesta Sisak win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 07:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6748701

Closing Odds 1.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Segesta Sisak win · Segesta Sisak 3–1 NK Osijek
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Cup
  • Fixture: Segesta Sisak vs NK Osijek
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-09 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Segesta Sisak 1.27 — NK Osijek 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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