Predictions / Football / Peru. Copa De La Liga / ADT vs Sporting Cristal

Prediction Audit: ADT vs Sporting Cristal Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

ADT ADT
Sep 27, 2026 - 20:15
0 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal

The model missed the final outcome (Sporting Cristal win 0–1).

The model had projected ADT at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 ADT Sporting Cristal ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Sporting Cristal higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sporting Cristal -8.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
ADT 36.1% 28.6% +7.5 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.9% +0.7 pp Aligned
Sporting Cristal 34.2% 42.5% -8.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Sporting Cristal's win probability at 42.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Sporting Cristal win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Sporting Cristal. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned ADT; match finished Sporting Cristal

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on ADT by 8.3 percentage points (44.4% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 20:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · ADT 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Sporting Cristal 34.2%
    • xG · ADT 1.32 — Sporting Cristal 1.28
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 19:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · ADT 3.11 · Draw 3.07 · Sporting Cristal 2.09
    • Implied 1X2 · ADT 28.6% · Draw 28.9% · Sporting Cristal 42.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 20:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · ADT 3.11 · Draw 3.07 · Sporting Cristal 2.09
    • Implied 1X2 · ADT 28.6% · Draw 28.9% · Sporting Cristal 42.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 20:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sporting Cristal win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 01:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9168365

Closing Odds 2.09
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sporting Cristal win · ADT 0–1 Sporting Cristal
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Copa De La Liga
  • Fixture: ADT vs Sporting Cristal
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 20:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): ADT 1.32 — Sporting Cristal 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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