Predictions / Football / Russia. Cup / Chertanovo Moscow vs FK Neftekhimik

Prediction Audit: Chertanovo Moscow vs FK Neftekhimik Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Chertanovo Moscow Chertanovo Moscow
Sep 09, 2026 - 16:00
1(4) 1.33
1(3) 1.27
xG Accuracy: 85%
FK Neftekhimik FK Neftekhimik

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Chertanovo Moscow at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Chertanovo Moscow Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FK Neftekhimik higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FK Neftekhimik -20.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Chertanovo Moscow 36.6% 21.4% +15.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 24.7% +4.9 pp Aligned
FK Neftekhimik 33.8% 53.9% -20.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates FK Neftekhimik's win probability at 53.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 20.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Chertanovo Moscow; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Chertanovo Moscow by 20.1 percentage points (56.7% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 09, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Chertanovo Moscow 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · FK Neftekhimik 33.8%
    • xG · Chertanovo Moscow 1.33 — FK Neftekhimik 1.27
  2. Sep 09, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Chertanovo Moscow 4.16 · Draw 3.60 · FK Neftekhimik 1.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Chertanovo Moscow 21.4% · Draw 24.7% · FK Neftekhimik 53.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 09, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Chertanovo Moscow 4.16 · Draw 3.60 · FK Neftekhimik 1.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Chertanovo Moscow 21.4% · Draw 24.7% · FK Neftekhimik 53.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 15/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 07:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6749319

Closing Odds 1.65
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Chertanovo Moscow 1–1 FK Neftekhimik
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Cup
  • Fixture: Chertanovo Moscow vs FK Neftekhimik
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Chertanovo Moscow 1.33 — FK Neftekhimik 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.5% · Probability edge: +6.3 pts · Est. EV: +8.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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