The model missed the final outcome (Aston Villa win 1–3).
The model had projected Coventry at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Coventry Aston Villa ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry | 37.5% | 30.7% | +6.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.2% | +4.4 pp | Aligned |
| Aston Villa | 32.9% | 44.1% | -11.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Aston Villa's win probability at 44.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 11.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Aston Villa win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Aston Villa than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Coventry by 11.3 percentage points (48.8% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Coventry 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Aston Villa 32.9%
- xG · Coventry 1.35 — Aston Villa 1.25
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Coventry 3.13 · Draw 3.82 · Aston Villa 2.18
- Implied 1X2 · Coventry 30.7% · Draw 25.2% · Aston Villa 44.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Coventry 3.13 · Draw 3.82 · Aston Villa 2.18
- Implied 1X2 · Coventry 30.7% · Draw 25.2% · Aston Villa 44.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Aston Villa win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotProbability Calibration
- Expected: 51.8%
- Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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