The model missed the final outcome (Kraft win 7–0).
The model had projected VPS II at 43.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 VPS II Kraft ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 7-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraft | 27.1% | 37.1% | -10.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.1% | 20.4% | +8.7 pp | Model Higher |
| VPS II | 43.8% | 42.5% | +1.3 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Kraft's win probability at 37.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 27.1%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Kraft win 7–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Kraft than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned VPS II; match finished Kraft
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on VPS II by 10.1 percentage points (53.8% vs model 43.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kraft 27.1% · Draw 29.1% · VPS II 43.9%
- xG · Kraft 1.12 — VPS II 1.48
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 12:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kraft 2.44 · Draw 4.45 · VPS II 2.13
- Implied 1X2 · Kraft 37.1% · Draw 20.4% · VPS II 42.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kraft 2.44 · Draw 4.45 · VPS II 2.13
- Implied 1X2 · Kraft 37.1% · Draw 20.4% · VPS II 42.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Kraft win · 7–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Kakkonen - Lohko C — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huima / Urho | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 36 |
| 2 | GBK | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 32 |
| 3 | JBK | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 31 |
| 4 | VPS II | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 | Jaro 2 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 25 |
| 6 | Kraft | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 7 | TP-47 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 8 | Vaajakoski | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 9 | JS Hercules | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 10 | SJK-juniorit | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huima / Urho | 18 | 50 | 26 | +24 | 36 |
| 2 | Kraft | 18 | 50 | 45 | +5 | 23 |
| 3 | VPS II | 18 | 47 | 36 | +11 | 25 |
| 4 | GBK | 18 | 43 | 33 | +10 | 32 |
| 5 | JBK | 18 | 37 | 24 | +13 | 31 |
| 6 | Vaajakoski | 18 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 21 |
| 7 | Jaro 2 | 18 | 33 | 54 | -21 | 25 |
| 8 | JS Hercules | 18 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 21 |
| 9 | TP-47 | 18 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 23 |
| 10 | SJK-juniorit | 18 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 19 |
