Predictions / Football / Bolivia. Nacional B / Wilstermann Cooperativa vs Atletico Juniors

Prediction Audit: Wilstermann Cooperativa vs Atletico Juniors Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wilstermann Cooperativa Wilstermann Cooperativa
Aug 27, 2026 - 19:00
5 1.28
4 1.32
xG Accuracy: 17%
⚽
Atletico Juniors

The model missed the final outcome (Wilstermann Cooperativa win 5–4).

The model had projected Atletico Juniors at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Atletico Juniors Wilstermann Cooperativa ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Wilstermann Cooperativa higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Wilstermann Cooperativa -37.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Wilstermann Cooperativa 34.2% 71.6% -37.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 16.0% +13.7 pp Model Edge
Atletico Juniors 36.1% 12.4% +23.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Wilstermann Cooperativa's win probability at 71.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 37.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Wilstermann Cooperativa win 5–4.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 9 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (9 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Atletico Juniors; match finished Wilstermann Cooperativa

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Atletico Juniors by 37.4 percentage points (73.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 27, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Wilstermann Cooperativa 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Atletico Juniors 36.1%
    • xG · Wilstermann Cooperativa 1.28 — Atletico Juniors 1.32
  2. Aug 27, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Wilstermann Cooperativa 1.25 · Draw 5.61 · Atletico Juniors 7.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Wilstermann Cooperativa 71.6% · Draw 16.0% · Atletico Juniors 12.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 27, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Wilstermann Cooperativa 1.25 · Draw 5.61 · Atletico Juniors 7.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Wilstermann Cooperativa 71.6% · Draw 16.0% · Atletico Juniors 12.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 27, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Wilstermann Cooperativa win · 5–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 30/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (37 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 01:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5617303

Closing Odds 1.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wilstermann Cooperativa win · Wilstermann Cooperativa 5–4 Atletico Juniors
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Atletico Juniors; market prices Wilstermann Cooperativa instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Wilstermann Cooperativa 1.28 xG vs Atletico Juniors 1.32 → Atletico Juniors 36.1%
  • Market: Wilstermann Cooperativa ~12.4% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Nacional B Nacional B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 EM Huanuni 6 4 2 0 14
1 26 de Febrero 6 5 0 1 15
1 Wilstermann Cooperativa 6 3 1 2 10
1 Independiente CBBA 6 5 0 1 15
1 Virginia 6 4 2 0 14
1 CD IN San Juan FC 5 3 1 1 10
1 Primero Mayo 6 4 0 2 12
2 Atletico Sucre 6 3 0 3 9
2 Deportivo FATIC 6 3 1 2 10
2 Hiska Nacional 6 2 1 3 7
2 Mineros Potosi 6 3 1 2 10
2 Municipal Tiquipaya 6 3 2 1 11
2 Deportivo Tigres 5 2 2 1 8
2 Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz 6 3 2 1 11
3 Club Universitario 6 2 2 2 8
4 Ingenieros 5 1 1 3 4
4 Atletico Juniors 6 0 0 6 0
4 Universitario Beni 5 0 0 5 0
4 Unión Tarija 5 2 0 3 6
4 CD Guadalajara 5 0 2 3 2
4 Universitario Tarija 6 1 1 4 4
4 Libertad 6 0 1 5 1
5 Chaco 5 2 0 3 6
6 San Martin de Yacuiba 5 2 0 3 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mineros Potosi 6 20 8 +12 10
2 Municipal Tiquipaya 6 15 4 +11 11
3 Atletico Sucre 6 15 8 +7 9
4 Wilstermann Cooperativa 6 15 12 +3 10
5 26 de Febrero 6 14 6 +8 15
6 EM Huanuni 6 13 4 +9 14
7 Deportivo FATIC 6 13 7 +6 10
8 Chaco 5 13 14 -1 6
9 Independiente CBBA 6 12 6 +6 15
10 CD IN San Juan FC 5 11 4 +7 10
11 Primero Mayo 6 11 10 +1 12
12 Virginia 6 10 3 +7 14
13 Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz 6 10 7 +3 11
14 Hiska Nacional 6 10 15 -5 7
15 Deportivo Tigres 5 9 4 +5 8
16 Ingenieros 5 9 11 -2 4
17 Club Universitario 6 8 8 0 8
18 Unión Tarija 5 7 6 +1 6
19 Universitario Tarija 6 5 17 -12 4
20 Atletico Juniors 6 5 26 -21 0
21 CD Guadalajara 5 4 9 -5 2
22 San Martin de Yacuiba 5 2 7 -5 6
23 Universitario Beni 5 2 15 -13 0
24 Libertad 6 0 22 -22 1