Prediction Audit: Police vs SC Villa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Police

Oct 14, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.28

6 1.32

xG Accuracy: 26%

SC Villa

AI correctly predicted the SC Villa win.

The match finished 1–6, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 SC Villa SC Villa ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-6 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (SC Villa win 1–6).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Oct 08, 2026 · 02:02 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Police 1.28 — SC Villa 1.32
Oct 14, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result SC Villa win · 1–6
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 08, 2026 · 02:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13895450

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result SC Villa win · Police 1–6 SC Villa

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Police vs SC Villa
Kickoff: 2026-10-14 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): Police 1.28 — SC Villa 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	SC Villa	6	4	2	0	14
2	NEC	6	4	2	0	14
3	BUL	5	4	1	0	13
4	Entebbe UPPC	5	3	1	1	10
5	KCCA	6	3	1	2	10
6	Blacks Power	6	3	0	3	9
7	Kitara	4	2	2	0	8
8	Vipers	4	2	1	1	7
9	Maroons	6	2	1	3	7
10	Lugazi	6	2	1	3	7
11	Police	6	2	1	3	7
12	UPDF	4	1	2	1	5
13	Express	5	1	2	2	5
14	Mbarara City	5	1	2	2	5
15	URA	4	1	0	3	3
16	Ntugasaze	6	1	0	5	3
17	Kataka	5	0	2	3	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	SC Villa	6	14	3	+11	14
2	NEC	6	11	2	+9	14
3	BUL	5	11	3	+8	13
4	Maroons	6	9	7	+2	7
5	Vipers	4	8	2	+6	7
6	Entebbe UPPC	5	6	2	+4	10
7	Blacks Power	6	6	9	-3	9
8	Kitara	4	5	3	+2	8
9	KCCA	6	4	4	0	10
10	Lugazi	6	4	9	-5	7
11	Police	6	4	10	-6	7
12	Express	5	3	4	-1	5
13	URA	4	3	7	-4	3
14	Kataka	5	3	8	-5	2
15	Ntugasaze	6	3	13	-10	3
16	UPDF	4	2	2	0	5
17	Mbarara City	5	2	3	-1	5
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	5	1	8	-7	1