The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Police at 42.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Police Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Police | 42.9% | 51.0% | -8.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.2% | 26.2% | +3.0 pp | Aligned |
| UPDF | 27.9% | 22.8% | +5.2 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Police's win probability at 51.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Police. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Police by 8.2 percentage points (51.1% vs model 42.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Police 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · UPDF 27.9%
- xG · Police 1.46 — UPDF 1.14
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Police 1.74 · Draw 3.39 · UPDF 3.90
- Implied 1X2 · Police 51.0% · Draw 26.2% · UPDF 22.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Police 1.74 · Draw 3.39 · UPDF 3.90
- Implied 1X2 · Police 51.0% · Draw 26.2% · UPDF 22.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | NEC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | SC Villa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Blacks Power | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Police | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Entebbe UPPC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Lugazi | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | UPDF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Express | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | KCCA | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Vipers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Maroons | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | URA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Kitara | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Mbarara City | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 16 | Kataka | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 18 | Ntugasaze | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 4 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 12 |
| 2 | NEC | 4 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 10 |
| 3 | SC Villa | 4 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 4 | Blacks Power | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 | Maroons | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | Lugazi | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 | Police | 4 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 8 | Vipers | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Entebbe UPPC | 4 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Express | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | URA | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | UPDF | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Kitara | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Ntugasaze | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| 15 | KCCA | 4 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Kataka | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
| 17 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | Mbarara City | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
