AI correctly predicted the Independiente Medellin win.
The match finished 1–4, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pasto | 31.5% | 25.1% | +6.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 30.1% | -0.6 pp | Aligned |
| Independiente Medellin | 39.0% | 44.8% | -5.8 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Deportivo Pasto's win probability at 31.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.1%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Independiente Medellin win 1–4).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Deportivo Pasto.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Independiente Medellin more conservatively (32.6% vs model 39.0%, 6.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Independiente Medellin win 1–4).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 01:09 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportivo Pasto 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Independiente Medellin 39.0%
- xG · Deportivo Pasto 1.22 — Independiente Medellin 1.38
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 00:39 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Pasto 3.70 · Draw 3.08 · Independiente Medellin 2.07
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Pasto 25.1% · Draw 30.1% · Independiente Medellin 44.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 01:09 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Pasto 3.70 · Draw 3.08 · Independiente Medellin 2.07
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Pasto 25.1% · Draw 30.1% · Independiente Medellin 44.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 01:10 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Independiente Medellin win · 1–4
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Copa Colombia — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Cali | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Alianza Petrolera | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Popayan | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Real Santander | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Cali | 4 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 12 |
| 2 | Bucaramanga | 4 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Popayan | 4 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Alianza Petrolera | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 5 | Real Santander | 4 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 0 |
