Predictions / Football / Russia. Cup / Ryazan vs Spartak Kostroma

Prediction Audit: Ryazan vs Spartak Kostroma Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ryazan Ryazan
Sep 08, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.27
2 1.33
xG Accuracy: 59%
Spartak Kostroma Spartak Kostroma

AI correctly predicted the Spartak Kostroma win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Spartak Kostroma Spartak Kostroma ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Spartak Kostroma higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Spartak Kostroma -19.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ryazan 33.8% 19.1% +14.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 24.8% +4.8 pp Aligned
Spartak Kostroma 36.6% 56.1% -19.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Spartak Kostroma's win probability at 56.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 19.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Spartak Kostroma win 0–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Spartak Kostroma than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Spartak Kostroma higher (56.1% vs model 36.6%, 19.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Spartak Kostroma win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 08, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ryazan 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Spartak Kostroma 36.6%
    • xG · Ryazan 1.27 — Spartak Kostroma 1.33
  2. Sep 08, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ryazan 4.65 · Draw 3.57 · Spartak Kostroma 1.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Ryazan 19.1% · Draw 24.8% · Spartak Kostroma 56.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 08, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ryazan 4.65 · Draw 3.57 · Spartak Kostroma 1.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Ryazan 19.1% · Draw 24.8% · Spartak Kostroma 56.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 08, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Spartak Kostroma win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 2/100
Betting Confidence 42/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 07:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6749221

Closing Odds 1.58
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Spartak Kostroma win · Ryazan 0–2 Spartak Kostroma
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Cup
  • Fixture: Ryazan vs Spartak Kostroma
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-08 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Ryazan 1.27 — Spartak Kostroma 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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