Prediction Audit: Aryan vs United Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Aryan

Aug 28, 2026 - 09:30

2 1.14

1 1.46

xG Accuracy: 70%

United

The model missed the final outcome (Aryan win 2–1).

The model had projected United at 42.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 United Aryan ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Aryan	27.9%	33.9%	-5.9 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.2%	30.8%	-1.6 pp	Aligned
United	42.9%	35.3%	+7.5 pp	Model Higher

The statistical model estimates United's win probability at 42.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 35.3%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Aryan win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on United.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
1X2: model leaned United; match finished Aryan

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on United by 7.5 percentage points (35.4% vs model 42.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 28, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Aryan 27.9% · Draw 29.2% · United 42.9%
- xG · Aryan 1.14 — United 1.46
Aug 28, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Aryan 2.63 · Draw 2.89 · United 2.52
- Implied 1X2 · Aryan 33.9% · Draw 30.8% · United 35.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 28, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Aryan 2.63 · Draw 2.89 · United 2.52
- Implied 1X2 · Aryan 33.9% · Draw 30.8% · United 35.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 28, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Aryan win · 2–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 62/100

Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 01:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5618670

Closing Odds 2.52

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Aryan win · Aryan 2–1 United

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Calcutta Premier Division
Fixture: Aryan vs United
Kickoff: 2026-08-28 09:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 27.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.9%
xG (showing): Aryan 1.14 — United 1.46 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Calcutta Premier Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	East Bengal	14	9	5	0	32
2	Bhawanipore	14	9	4	1	31
3	Mohun Bagan	14	9	3	2	30
4	Mohammedan	14	7	4	3	25
5	United	14	6	5	3	23
6	Coal India	14	6	4	4	22
7	Peerless	11	6	2	3	20
8	Aryan	11	5	4	2	19
9	Calcutta Customs	11	5	3	3	18
10	Calcutta Police	11	5	3	3	18
11	Police	11	4	5	2	17
12	United Kolkata	11	4	4	3	16
13	Measurers	11	3	6	2	15
14	Kalighat	11	4	2	5	14
15	Railway	11	4	2	5	14
16	Kidderpore	11	2	6	3	12
17	BSS Sporting	11	3	3	5	12
18	Patha Chakra	11	3	1	7	10
19	NA Suruchi Sangha	11	2	3	6	9
20	Rainbow	11	2	1	8	7
21	Wari	11	1	4	6	7
22	George Telegraph	11	2	1	8	7
23	Kalighat Club	11	0	3	8	3
24	Bidhannagar	11	0	2	9	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	East Bengal	14	35	8	+27	32
2	Mohun Bagan	14	35	10	+25	30
3	United	14	25	10	+15	23
4	Bhawanipore	14	24	7	+17	31
5	Calcutta Customs	11	24	12	+12	18
6	Mohammedan	14	23	16	+7	25
7	United Kolkata	11	22	16	+6	16
8	Measurers	11	21	17	+4	15
9	Peerless	11	20	9	+11	20
10	Railway	11	20	20	0	14
11	Coal India	14	19	22	-3	22
12	Aryan	11	18	6	+12	19
13	Kalighat	11	18	13	+5	14
14	BSS Sporting	11	17	21	-4	12
15	Kidderpore	11	15	18	-3	12
16	Calcutta Police	11	13	11	+2	18
17	Police	11	13	11	+2	17
18	Rainbow	11	13	31	-18	7
19	Patha Chakra	11	12	32	-20	10
20	NA Suruchi Sangha	11	11	20	-9	9
21	Wari	11	9	28	-19	7
22	George Telegraph	11	7	33	-26	7
23	Bidhannagar	11	5	31	-26	2
24	Kalighat Club	11	4	21	-17	3