Predictions / Football / Hungary. Magyar Kupa / Tatabánya vs Kecskeméti TE

Prediction Audit: Tatabánya vs Kecskeméti TE Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tatabánya Tatabánya
Sep 12, 2026 - 13:00
4 1.29
5 1.31
xG Accuracy: 17%
Kecskeméti TE Kecskeméti TE

AI correctly predicted the Kecskeméti TE win.

The match finished 4–5, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kecskeméti TE Kecskeméti TE ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Kecskeméti TE higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kecskeméti TE -23.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tatabánya 34.7% 18.4% +16.3 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 22.6% +7.1 pp Model Higher
Kecskeméti TE 35.6% 59.0% -23.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Kecskeméti TE's win probability at 59.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 23.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Kecskeméti TE win 4–5).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 9 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (9 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Kecskeméti TE higher (59.0% vs model 35.6%, 23.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Kecskeméti TE win 4–5).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 12, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tatabánya 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Kecskeméti TE 35.6%
    • xG · Tatabánya 1.29 — Kecskeméti TE 1.31
  2. Sep 12, 2026 · 12:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tatabánya 4.85 · Draw 3.95 · Kecskeméti TE 1.51
    • Implied 1X2 · Tatabánya 18.4% · Draw 22.6% · Kecskeméti TE 59.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 12, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tatabánya 4.85 · Draw 3.95 · Kecskeméti TE 1.51
    • Implied 1X2 · Tatabánya 18.4% · Draw 22.6% · Kecskeméti TE 59.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 12, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kecskeméti TE win · 4–5
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7436640

Closing Odds 1.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kecskeméti TE win · Tatabánya 4–5 Kecskeméti TE
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Magyar Kupa
  • Fixture: Tatabánya vs Kecskeméti TE
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Tatabánya 1.29 — Kecskeméti TE 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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