Predictions / Football / Hungary. Magyar Kupa / Sopron vs Szegedi VSE

Prediction Audit: Sopron vs Szegedi VSE Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Sopron
Sep 11, 2026 - 15:00
6 1.39
3 1.21
xG Accuracy: 17%
Szegedi VSE Szegedi VSE

AI correctly predicted the Sopron win.

The match finished 6–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sopron Sopron ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 6-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sopron higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sopron -18.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sopron 39.5% 57.7% -18.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 21.9% +7.6 pp Model Higher
Szegedi VSE 31.0% 20.4% +10.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Sopron's win probability at 57.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 18.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sopron win 6–3).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Sopron than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 9 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (9 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sopron higher (57.7% vs model 39.5%, 18.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sopron win 6–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 11, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sopron 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Szegedi VSE 31.0%
    • xG · Sopron 1.39 — Szegedi VSE 1.21
  2. Sep 11, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sopron 1.53 · Draw 4.02 · Szegedi VSE 4.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Sopron 57.7% · Draw 21.9% · Szegedi VSE 20.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 11, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sopron 1.53 · Draw 4.02 · Szegedi VSE 4.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Sopron 57.7% · Draw 21.9% · Szegedi VSE 20.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 11, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sopron win · 6–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7028506

Closing Odds 1.53
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sopron win · Sopron 6–3 Szegedi VSE
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Magyar Kupa
  • Fixture: Sopron vs Szegedi VSE
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Sopron 1.39 — Szegedi VSE 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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