AI correctly predicted the Shan United win.
The match finished 0–4, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Shan United Shan United ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 0-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myawady | 20.9% | 4.9% | +16.1 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 27.8% | 9.8% | +18.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Shan United | 51.3% | 85.3% | -34.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Shan United's win probability at 85.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 51.3%, a difference of 34.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Shan United win 0–4).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Shan United attacking xG significantly stronger (1.63 vs 0.97)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Shan United higher (85.3% vs model 51.3%, 34.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Shan United win 0–4).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Myawady 20.9% · Draw 27.8% · Shan United 51.3%
- xG · Myawady 0.97 — Shan United 1.63
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Myawady 19.00 · Draw 9.50 · Shan United 1.09
- Implied 1X2 · Myawady 4.9% · Draw 9.8% · Shan United 85.3%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Myawady 19.00 · Draw 9.50 · Shan United 1.09
- Implied 1X2 · Myawady 4.9% · Draw 9.8% · Shan United 85.3%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Shan United win · 0–4
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (34 pp)
- Moderate model lean
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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National League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dagon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Yangon United | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Shan United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Yadanarbon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Sagaing United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Ayeyawady United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Thitsar Arman | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | Yangon Royals | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Hantharwady United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Myawady | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | I.S.P.E | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | GFA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dagon | 2 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 6 |
| 2 | Yangon United | 2 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 6 |
| 3 | Shan United | 2 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 4 |
| 4 | Sagaing United | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Thitsar Arman | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | I.S.P.E | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 |
| 7 | Yadanarbon | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 | Yangon Royals | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Hantharwady United | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Ayeyawady United | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 11 | Myawady | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| 12 | GFA | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
