The model missed the final outcome (Adelaide Raiders win 4–0).
The model had projected Adelaide Blue Eagles at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Adelaide Blue Eagles Adelaide Raiders ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Raiders | 33.8% | 53.5% | -19.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 20.9% | +8.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Adelaide Blue Eagles | 36.6% | 25.6% | +11.0 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Adelaide Raiders's win probability at 53.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 19.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Adelaide Raiders win 4–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Adelaide Raiders than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Adelaide Blue Eagles by 19.8 percentage points (56.4% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 05:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Adelaide Raiders 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Adelaide Blue Eagles 36.6%
- xG · Adelaide Raiders 1.27 — Adelaide Blue Eagles 1.33
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 04:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Adelaide Raiders 1.69 · Draw 4.32 · Adelaide Blue Eagles 3.54
- Implied 1X2 · Adelaide Raiders 53.5% · Draw 20.9% · Adelaide Blue Eagles 25.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 05:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Adelaide Raiders 1.69 · Draw 4.32 · Adelaide Blue Eagles 3.54
- Implied 1X2 · Adelaide Raiders 53.5% · Draw 20.9% · Adelaide Blue Eagles 25.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 05:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Adelaide Raiders win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (20 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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South Australia State League 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Raiders | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 47 |
| 2 | Modbury Jets | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 44 |
| 3 | Adelaide Olympic | 22 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 43 |
| 4 | Fulham United | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 37 |
| 5 | Adelaide Blue Eagles | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 36 |
| 6 | Adelaide Victory | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Cumberland United | 22 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 34 |
| 8 | The Cove | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 26 |
| 9 | Eastern United | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 22 |
| 10 | Adelaide Cobras | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 20 |
| 11 | Salisbury United | 22 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 17 |
| 12 | South Adelaide Panthers | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 15 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Raiders | 22 | 56 | 26 | +30 | 47 |
| 2 | Modbury Jets | 22 | 46 | 20 | +26 | 44 |
| 3 | Adelaide Olympic | 22 | 42 | 25 | +17 | 43 |
| 4 | Fulham United | 22 | 42 | 31 | +11 | 37 |
| 5 | Adelaide Victory | 22 | 40 | 34 | +6 | 36 |
| 6 | Cumberland United | 22 | 36 | 28 | +8 | 34 |
| 7 | Adelaide Blue Eagles | 22 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 36 |
| 8 | The Cove | 22 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 26 |
| 9 | Salisbury United | 22 | 28 | 48 | -20 | 17 |
| 10 | South Adelaide Panthers | 22 | 26 | 62 | -36 | 15 |
| 11 | Eastern United | 22 | 25 | 44 | -19 | 22 |
| 12 | Adelaide Cobras | 22 | 22 | 45 | -23 | 20 |
