Predictions / Football / Russia. Second League - Group 4 / Krylya Sovetov II vs Dinamo Barnaul

Prediction Audit: Krylya Sovetov II vs Dinamo Barnaul Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Krylya Sovetov II Krylya Sovetov II
Sep 20, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.31
2 1.29
xG Accuracy: 76%
Dinamo Barnaul Dinamo Barnaul

The model missed the final outcome (Dinamo Barnaul win 1–2).

The model had projected Krylya Sovetov II at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Krylya Sovetov II Dinamo Barnaul ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Krylya Sovetov II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Krylya Sovetov II -9.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Krylya Sovetov II 35.6% 45.3% -9.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 27.5% +2.1 pp Aligned
Dinamo Barnaul 34.7% 27.2% +7.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Krylya Sovetov II's win probability at 45.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Dinamo Barnaul win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Krylya Sovetov II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Krylya Sovetov II by 9.6 percentage points (45.2% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 10:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Krylya Sovetov II 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Dinamo Barnaul 34.7%
    • xG · Krylya Sovetov II 1.31 — Dinamo Barnaul 1.29
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 09:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Krylya Sovetov II 1.97 · Draw 3.24 · Dinamo Barnaul 3.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Krylya Sovetov II 45.3% · Draw 27.5% · Dinamo Barnaul 27.2%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 10:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Krylya Sovetov II 1.97 · Draw 3.24 · Dinamo Barnaul 3.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Krylya Sovetov II 45.3% · Draw 27.5% · Dinamo Barnaul 27.2%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dinamo Barnaul win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 51/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8661677

Closing Odds 1.97
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dinamo Barnaul win · Krylya Sovetov II 1–2 Dinamo Barnaul
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Second League - Group 4
  • Fixture: Krylya Sovetov II vs Dinamo Barnaul
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Krylya Sovetov II 1.31 — Dinamo Barnaul 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.5% · Implied: 33.3% · Probability edge: +12.2 pts · Est. EV: +26.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Second League - Group 4 Matches Track Krylya Sovetov II Next Match Prediction Track Dinamo Barnaul Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Krylya Sovetov II & Dinamo Barnaul!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Second League - Group 4 Second League - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Khimik Dzerzhinsk 22 18 2 2 56
2 KDV 22 17 2 3 53
3 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 22 13 4 5 43
4 Akron II 22 10 2 10 32
5 Krylya Sovetov II 22 6 9 7 27
6 Dinamo Barnaul 22 7 5 10 26
7 Orenburg II 22 6 8 8 26
8 Izhevsk 22 5 8 9 23
9 Ural II 22 5 7 10 22
10 Rubin Kazan 2 22 4 8 10 20
11 Nosta 22 4 6 12 18
12 Chelyabinsk II 22 4 5 13 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Khimik Dzerzhinsk 22 57 16 +41 56
2 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 22 51 33 +18 43
3 Akron II 22 46 34 +12 32
4 KDV 22 40 20 +20 53
5 Ural II 22 34 44 -10 22
6 Orenburg II 22 31 35 -4 26
7 Dinamo Barnaul 22 31 50 -19 26
8 Izhevsk 22 30 32 -2 23
9 Krylya Sovetov II 22 25 26 -1 27
10 Rubin Kazan 2 22 25 35 -10 20
11 Nosta 22 20 48 -28 18
12 Chelyabinsk II 22 19 36 -17 17
Second League - Group 4 Russia. Second League - Group 4 Predictions