Predictions / Football / Russia. Second League - Group 4 / Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Akron II

Prediction Audit: Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Akron II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Khimik Dzerzhinsk Khimik Dzerzhinsk
Sep 20, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.50
2 1.10
xG Accuracy: 68%
Akron II Akron II

The model missed the final outcome (Akron II win 1–2).

The model had projected Khimik Dzerzhinsk at 44.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Khimik Dzerzhinsk Akron II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Khimik Dzerzhinsk higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Khimik Dzerzhinsk -25.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 44.8% 70.7% -25.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.9% 19.6% +9.4 pp Model Higher
Akron II 26.2% 9.7% +16.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Khimik Dzerzhinsk's win probability at 70.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.8%, a difference of 25.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Akron II win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Khimik Dzerzhinsk by 25.9 percentage points (70.7% vs model 44.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 44.8% · Draw 29.0% · Akron II 26.2%
    • xG · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1.50 — Akron II 1.10
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 14:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1.26 · Draw 4.55 · Akron II 9.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 70.7% · Draw 19.6% · Akron II 9.7%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1.26 · Draw 4.55 · Akron II 9.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 70.7% · Draw 19.6% · Akron II 9.7%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Akron II win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8686686

Closing Odds 1.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Akron II win · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1–2 Akron II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Second League - Group 4
  • Fixture: Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Akron II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.8% · Draw 29.0% · Away 26.2%
  • xG (showing): Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1.5 — Akron II 1.1 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Second League - Group 4 Matches Track Khimik Dzerzhinsk Next Match Prediction Track Akron II Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Khimik Dzerzhinsk & Akron II!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Second League - Group 4 Second League - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Khimik Dzerzhinsk 22 18 2 2 56
2 KDV 22 17 2 3 53
3 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 22 13 4 5 43
4 Akron II 22 10 2 10 32
5 Krylya Sovetov II 22 6 9 7 27
6 Dinamo Barnaul 22 7 5 10 26
7 Orenburg II 22 6 8 8 26
8 Izhevsk 22 5 8 9 23
9 Ural II 22 5 7 10 22
10 Rubin Kazan 2 22 4 8 10 20
11 Nosta 22 4 6 12 18
12 Chelyabinsk II 22 4 5 13 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Khimik Dzerzhinsk 22 57 16 +41 56
2 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 22 51 33 +18 43
3 Akron II 22 46 34 +12 32
4 KDV 22 40 20 +20 53
5 Ural II 22 34 44 -10 22
6 Orenburg II 22 31 35 -4 26
7 Dinamo Barnaul 22 31 50 -19 26
8 Izhevsk 22 30 32 -2 23
9 Krylya Sovetov II 22 25 26 -1 27
10 Rubin Kazan 2 22 25 35 -10 20
11 Nosta 22 20 48 -28 18
12 Chelyabinsk II 22 19 36 -17 17
Second League - Group 4 Russia. Second League - Group 4 Predictions