AI correctly predicted the Brasiliense U20 win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Brasiliense U20 Brasiliense U20 ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brasiliense U20 | 40.4% | 52.9% | -12.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 25.1% | +4.3 pp | Aligned |
| Sobradinho U20 | 30.1% | 21.9% | +8.2 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Brasiliense U20's win probability at 52.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Brasiliense U20 win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Brasiliense U20 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Brasiliense U20 higher (52.9% vs model 40.4%, 12.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Brasiliense U20 win 2–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Brasiliense U20 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Sobradinho U20 30.1%
- xG · Brasiliense U20 1.41 — Sobradinho U20 1.19
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Brasiliense U20 1.68 · Draw 3.54 · Sobradinho U20 4.05
- Implied 1X2 · Brasiliense U20 52.9% · Draw 25.1% · Sobradinho U20 21.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Brasiliense U20 1.68 · Draw 3.54 · Sobradinho U20 4.05
- Implied 1X2 · Brasiliense U20 52.9% · Draw 25.1% · Sobradinho U20 21.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Brasiliense U20 win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Brasiliense U20 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brasiliense U20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Legiao U20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Sobradinho U20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Taguatinga U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Capital TO U20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Samambaia U20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Gama U20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 8 | Brazlândia FC SAF U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | CFZ Brasilia U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | ARUC U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 | Planaltina U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brasiliense U20 | 3 | 21 | 0 | +21 | 9 |
| 2 | Sobradinho U20 | 2 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 6 |
| 3 | Taguatinga U20 | 3 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 6 |
| 4 | Gama U20 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Capital TO U20 | 2 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 4 |
| 6 | Legiao U20 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Brazlândia FC SAF U20 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Samambaia U20 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | CFZ Brasilia U20 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 3 |
| 10 | ARUC U20 | 3 | 1 | 15 | -14 | 0 |
| 11 | Planaltina U20 | 3 | 0 | 21 | -21 | 0 |
