The model missed the final outcome (Song Lam Nghe An win 1–4).
The model had projected Ha Noi at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Ha Noi Song Lam Nghe An ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ha Noi | 41.4% | 65.7% | -24.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 23.2% | +6.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Song Lam Nghe An | 29.2% | 11.2% | +18.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Ha Noi's win probability at 65.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 24.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Song Lam Nghe An win 1–4.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Ha Noi by 24.3 percentage points (65.7% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 12:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ha Noi 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Song Lam Nghe An 29.3%
- xG · Ha Noi 1.43 — Song Lam Nghe An 1.17
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 11:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ha Noi 1.40 · Draw 3.97 · Song Lam Nghe An 8.22
- Implied 1X2 · Ha Noi 65.7% · Draw 23.2% · Song Lam Nghe An 11.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 12:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ha Noi 1.40 · Draw 3.97 · Song Lam Nghe An 8.22
- Implied 1X2 · Ha Noi 65.7% · Draw 23.2% · Song Lam Nghe An 11.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 12:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Song Lam Nghe An win · 1–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (24 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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V.League 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Công An Nhân Dân | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Phu Dong | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Song Lam Nghe An | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Da Nang | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Nam Dinh | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Ho Chi Minh City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Viettel | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Thanh Hóa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Bắc Ninh | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Hai Phong | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Ha Noi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Bình Phước | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Công An Nhân Dân | 3 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Phu Dong | 2 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 | Song Lam Nghe An | 2 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 4 | Da Nang | 2 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 3 |
| 5 | Nam Dinh | 2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Thanh Hóa | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Hai Phong | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Ho Chi Minh City | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Viettel | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | Ha Noi | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
| 11 | Bắc Ninh | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
| 14 | Bình Phước | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 |
