Prediction Audit: Bihorul Beiuş vs Sighetu Marmaţiei Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bihorul Beiuş

Sep 23, 2026 - 14:00

0 1.21

3 1.39

xG Accuracy: 46%

Sighetu Marmaţiei

AI correctly predicted the Sighetu Marmaţiei win.

The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Sighetu Marmaţiei Sighetu Marmaţiei ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Sighetu Marmaţiei win 0–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 17, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Bihorul Beiuş 1.21 — Sighetu Marmaţiei 1.39
Sep 23, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Sighetu Marmaţiei win · 0–3
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9164204

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Sighetu Marmaţiei win · Bihorul Beiuş 0–3 Sighetu Marmaţiei

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga III - Serie 8
Fixture: Bihorul Beiuş vs Sighetu Marmaţiei
Kickoff: 2026-09-23 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
xG (showing): Bihorul Beiuş 1.21 — Sighetu Marmaţiei 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga III - Serie 8 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Minaur Baia Mare	6	4	1	1	13
2	SCM Zalău	6	4	1	1	13
3	Sânmartin	6	3	3	0	12
4	Crişul Sântandrei	6	3	1	2	10
5	Viitorul Cluj	6	2	3	1	9
6	Sănătatea Cluj	6	2	3	1	9
7	Academica Recea	6	3	0	3	9
8	Sighetu Marmaţiei	6	2	2	2	8
9	Bihorul Beiuş	6	2	2	2	8
10	Unirea Dej	6	1	1	4	4
11	Unirea Tășnad	6	0	2	4	2
12	Transilvania Sport Academy	6	0	1	5	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Minaur Baia Mare	6	14	6	+8	13
2	Sânmartin	6	14	6	+8	12
3	Academica Recea	6	13	14	-1	9
4	Viitorul Cluj	6	12	7	+5	9
5	SCM Zalău	6	11	3	+8	13
6	Crişul Sântandrei	6	10	9	+1	10
7	Sănătatea Cluj	6	9	4	+5	9
8	Sighetu Marmaţiei	6	9	7	+2	8
9	Bihorul Beiuş	6	6	6	0	8
10	Unirea Dej	6	4	11	-7	4
11	Transilvania Sport Academy	6	4	20	-16	1
12	Unirea Tășnad	6	2	15	-13	2