AI correctly predicted the Sănătatea Cluj win.
The match finished 5–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Sănătatea Cluj Sănătatea Cluj ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 5-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sănătatea Cluj | 43.4% | 62.2% | -18.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.1% | 17.9% | +11.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Transilvania Sport Academy | 27.5% | 19.9% | +7.6 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Sănătatea Cluj's win probability at 62.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.4%, a difference of 18.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sănătatea Cluj win 5–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Sănătatea Cluj than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sănătatea Cluj higher (62.2% vs model 43.4%, 18.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sănătatea Cluj win 5–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sănătatea Cluj 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Transilvania Sport Academy 27.5%
- xG · Sănătatea Cluj 1.47 — Transilvania Sport Academy 1.13
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sănătatea Cluj 1.44 · Draw 5.00 · Transilvania Sport Academy 4.50
- Implied 1X2 · Sănătatea Cluj 62.2% · Draw 17.9% · Transilvania Sport Academy 19.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sănătatea Cluj 1.44 · Draw 5.00 · Transilvania Sport Academy 4.50
- Implied 1X2 · Sănătatea Cluj 62.2% · Draw 17.9% · Transilvania Sport Academy 19.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sănătatea Cluj win · 5–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga III - Serie 8 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minaur Baia Mare | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 2 | SCM Zalău | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | Sânmartin | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 4 | Crişul Sântandrei | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Viitorul Cluj | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Sănătatea Cluj | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Academica Recea | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Sighetu Marmaţiei | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Bihorul Beiuş | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Unirea Dej | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Unirea Tășnad | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 12 | Transilvania Sport Academy | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minaur Baia Mare | 6 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 13 |
| 2 | Sânmartin | 6 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 12 |
| 3 | Academica Recea | 6 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 9 |
| 4 | Viitorul Cluj | 6 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 9 |
| 5 | SCM Zalău | 6 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 13 |
| 6 | Crişul Sântandrei | 6 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 |
| 7 | Sănătatea Cluj | 6 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 8 | Sighetu Marmaţiei | 6 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Bihorul Beiuş | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Unirea Dej | 6 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 4 |
| 11 | Transilvania Sport Academy | 6 | 4 | 20 | -16 | 1 |
| 12 | Unirea Tășnad | 6 | 2 | 15 | -13 | 2 |
