AI correctly predicted the Vulturii Fărcăşeşti win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Vulturii Fărcăşeşti Vulturii Fărcăşeşti ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vulturii Fărcăşeşti | 35.6% | 27.4% | +8.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.0% | +5.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Minerul Lupeni | 34.7% | 48.6% | -13.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Minerul Lupeni's win probability at 48.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 13.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Vulturii Fărcăşeşti win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Minerul Lupeni than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Vulturii Fărcăşeşti higher (49.5% vs model 35.6%, 13.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Vulturii Fărcăşeşti win 2–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:12 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vulturii Fărcăşeşti 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Minerul Lupeni 34.7%
- xG · Vulturii Fărcăşeşti 1.31 — Minerul Lupeni 1.29
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:50 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vulturii Fărcăşeşti 3.25 · Draw 3.70 · Minerul Lupeni 1.83
- Implied 1X2 · Vulturii Fărcăşeşti 27.4% · Draw 24.0% · Minerul Lupeni 48.6%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:12 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Vulturii Fărcăşeşti 3.25 · Draw 3.70 · Minerul Lupeni 1.83
- Implied 1X2 · Vulturii Fărcăşeşti 27.4% · Draw 24.0% · Minerul Lupeni 48.6%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Vulturii Fărcăşeşti win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga III - Serie 6 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 2 | CS U Craiova II | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Minerul Lupeni | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Filiaşi | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | CSM Targu Jiu | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | Jiul Petroşani | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Unirea Bascov | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Oltul Curtişoara | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Păușești | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Academica Balș | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 12 | Petrolul Hartiesti | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CS U Craiova II | 6 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 12 |
| 2 | Filiaşi | 6 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 11 |
| 3 | CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin | 6 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 13 |
| 4 | Unirea Bascov | 6 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 8 |
| 5 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti | 6 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Jiul Petroşani | 6 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | CSM Targu Jiu | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Oltul Curtişoara | 6 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 |
| 9 | Minerul Lupeni | 6 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 12 |
| 10 | Academica Balș | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 |
| 11 | Păușești | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Petrolul Hartiesti | 6 | 2 | 22 | -20 | 0 |
