Predictions / Football / Romania. Liga III - Serie 6 / CS U Craiova II vs Petrolul Hartiesti

Prediction Audit: CS U Craiova II vs Petrolul Hartiesti Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

CS U Craiova II CS U Craiova II
Sep 18, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 52%
⚽
Petrolul Hartiesti

AI correctly predicted the CS U Craiova II win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 CS U Craiova II CS U Craiova II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (CS U Craiova II win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 12, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · CS U Craiova II 1.32 — Petrolul Hartiesti 1.28
  2. Sep 18, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result CS U Craiova II win · 3–2
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8200674

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result CS U Craiova II win · CS U Craiova II 3–2 Petrolul Hartiesti
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga III - Serie 6
  • Fixture: CS U Craiova II vs Petrolul Hartiesti
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): CS U Craiova II 1.32 — Petrolul Hartiesti 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga III - Serie 6 Liga III - Serie 6 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin 6 4 1 1 13
2 CS U Craiova II 6 3 3 0 12
3 Minerul Lupeni 6 4 0 2 12
4 Filiaşi 6 3 2 1 11
5 CSM Targu Jiu 6 3 2 1 11
6 Jiul Petroşani 6 3 1 2 10
7 Unirea Bascov 6 2 2 2 8
8 Vulturii Fărcăşeşti 6 2 2 2 8
9 Oltul Curtişoara 6 2 0 4 6
10 Păușești 6 0 5 1 5
11 Academica Balș 6 1 0 5 3
12 Petrolul Hartiesti 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CS U Craiova II 6 13 7 +6 12
2 Filiaşi 6 13 10 +3 11
3 CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin 6 12 5 +7 13
4 Unirea Bascov 6 11 8 +3 8
5 Vulturii Fărcăşeşti 6 11 11 0 8
6 Jiul Petroşani 6 10 7 +3 10
7 CSM Targu Jiu 6 9 6 +3 11
8 Oltul Curtişoara 6 8 13 -5 6
9 Minerul Lupeni 6 7 3 +4 12
10 Academica Balș 6 7 10 -3 3
11 Păușești 6 6 7 -1 5
12 Petrolul Hartiesti 6 2 22 -20 0
Liga III - Serie 6 Romania. Liga III - Serie 6 Predictions