The model missed the final outcome (CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin win 0–2).
The model had projected Unirea Bascov at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Unirea Bascov CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unirea Bascov | 36.1% | 37.5% | -1.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.3% | +5.4 pp | Model Higher |
| CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin | 34.2% | 38.2% | -4.0 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.3%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Unirea Bascov; match finished CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Unirea Bascov by 5.4 percentage points (30.7% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Unirea Bascov 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin 34.2%
- xG · Unirea Bascov 1.32 — CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin 1.28
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Unirea Bascov 2.40 · Draw 3.70 · CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin 2.35
- Implied 1X2 · Unirea Bascov 37.5% · Draw 24.3% · CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin 38.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Unirea Bascov 2.40 · Draw 3.70 · CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin 2.35
- Implied 1X2 · Unirea Bascov 37.5% · Draw 24.3% · CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin 38.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga III - Serie 6 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 2 | CS U Craiova II | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Minerul Lupeni | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Filiaşi | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | CSM Targu Jiu | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | Jiul Petroşani | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Unirea Bascov | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Oltul Curtişoara | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Păușești | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Academica Balș | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 12 | Petrolul Hartiesti | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CS U Craiova II | 6 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 12 |
| 2 | Filiaşi | 6 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 11 |
| 3 | CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin | 6 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 13 |
| 4 | Unirea Bascov | 6 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 8 |
| 5 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti | 6 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Jiul Petroşani | 6 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | CSM Targu Jiu | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Oltul Curtişoara | 6 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 |
| 9 | Minerul Lupeni | 6 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 12 |
| 10 | Academica Balș | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 |
| 11 | Păușești | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Petrolul Hartiesti | 6 | 2 | 22 | -20 | 0 |
