Predictions / Football / Romania. Liga III - Serie 3 / Păuleşti vs Tunari

Prediction Audit: Păuleşti vs Tunari Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Păuleşti Păuleşti
Sep 22, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
Tunari Tunari

The model missed the final outcome (Tunari win 0–2).

The model had projected Păuleşti at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Păuleşti Tunari ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Păuleşti; match finished Tunari

Market lesson

The full-time result was Tunari win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 16, 2026 · 02:28 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Păuleşti 1.32 — Tunari 1.28
  2. Sep 22, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Tunari win · 0–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 02:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8987626

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tunari win · Păuleşti 0–2 Tunari
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga III - Serie 3
  • Fixture: Păuleşti vs Tunari
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-22 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Păuleşti 1.32 — Tunari 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga III - Serie 3 Liga III - Serie 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Flacăra Moreni 6 5 1 0 16
2 Berca 6 4 1 1 13
3 Tunari 6 4 1 1 13
4 Blejoi 6 3 1 2 10
5 Plopeni 6 3 0 3 9
6 Progresul Draganesti 6 2 2 2 8
7 Voința Crevedia 6 2 1 3 7
8 Viitorul Corbeanca 6 1 3 2 6
9 Pucioasa 6 1 2 3 5
10 Urban Titu 6 1 2 3 5
11 Râmnicu Sărat 6 1 2 3 5
12 Păuleşti 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Flacăra Moreni 6 19 4 +15 16
2 Blejoi 6 15 8 +7 10
3 Berca 6 14 10 +4 13
4 Tunari 6 12 9 +3 13
5 Voința Crevedia 6 12 10 +2 7
6 Progresul Draganesti 6 8 10 -2 8
7 Urban Titu 6 7 13 -6 5
8 Pucioasa 6 6 6 0 5
9 Plopeni 6 6 10 -4 9
10 Râmnicu Sărat 6 5 12 -7 5
11 Viitorul Corbeanca 6 2 5 -3 6
12 Păuleşti 6 2 11 -9 2
Liga III - Serie 3 Romania. Liga III - Serie 3 Predictions