Predictions / Football / Romania. Liga III - Serie 2 / Baicoi vs Sepsi II

Prediction Audit: Baicoi vs Sepsi II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Baicoi Baicoi
Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00
4 1.20
0 1.40
xG Accuracy: 32%
Sepsi II Sepsi II

The model missed the final outcome (Baicoi win 4–0).

The model had projected Sepsi II at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sepsi II Baicoi ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Baicoi win 4–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 21, 2026 · 02:06 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Baicoi 1.20 — Sepsi II 1.40
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Baicoi win · 4–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10105288

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Baicoi win · Baicoi 4–0 Sepsi II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga III - Serie 2
  • Fixture: Baicoi vs Sepsi II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Baicoi 1.2 — Sepsi II 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga III - Serie 2 Liga III - Serie 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Corona Braşov 6 4 2 0 14
2 Teleajenul 6 4 1 1 13
3 Inter Sibiu 6 4 0 2 12
4 Baicoi 6 3 3 0 12
5 Sepsi II 6 4 0 2 12
6 Olimpic Zărneşti 6 4 0 2 12
7 ACS Mediaş 2022 6 3 2 1 11
8 ARO Muscelul Câmpulung 6 1 4 1 7
9 Săcele 6 2 0 4 6
10 Tricolorul Breaza 6 0 1 5 1
11 Carpati Covasna 6 0 1 5 1
12 Kids Tâmpa Braşov 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Corona Braşov 6 18 3 +15 14
2 Inter Sibiu 6 17 5 +12 12
3 Teleajenul 6 16 9 +7 13
4 Baicoi 6 13 5 +8 12
5 Sepsi II 6 13 10 +3 12
6 ACS Mediaş 2022 6 12 7 +5 11
7 Olimpic Zărneşti 6 12 15 -3 12
8 ARO Muscelul Câmpulung 6 11 11 0 7
9 Săcele 6 6 13 -7 6
10 Tricolorul Breaza 6 5 16 -11 1
11 Carpati Covasna 6 5 22 -17 1
12 Kids Tâmpa Braşov 6 2 14 -12 0
Liga III - Serie 2 Romania. Liga III - Serie 2 Predictions