Predictions / Football / Romania. Liga III - Serie 1 / CSM Adjud vs USV Iaşi

Prediction Audit: CSM Adjud vs USV Iaşi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

CSM Adjud CSM Adjud
Sep 22, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 77%
USV Iaşi USV Iaşi

AI correctly predicted the USV Iaşi win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 USV Iaşi USV Iaşi ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +4.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
CSM Adjud 34.2% 34.3% -0.0 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 24.9% +4.7 pp Aligned
USV Iaşi 36.1% 40.8% -4.7 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (USV Iaşi win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (USV Iaşi win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 22, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · CSM Adjud 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · USV Iaşi 36.1%
    • xG · CSM Adjud 1.28 — USV Iaşi 1.32
  2. Sep 22, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · CSM Adjud 2.62 · Draw 3.60 · USV Iaşi 2.20
    • Implied 1X2 · CSM Adjud 34.3% · Draw 24.9% · USV Iaşi 40.8%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Sep 22, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · CSM Adjud 2.62 · Draw 3.60 · USV Iaşi 2.20
    • Implied 1X2 · CSM Adjud 34.3% · Draw 24.9% · USV Iaşi 40.8%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Sep 22, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result USV Iaşi win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 76/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 02:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8987173

Closing Odds 3.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result USV Iaşi win · CSM Adjud 1–2 USV Iaşi
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga III - Serie 1
  • Fixture: CSM Adjud vs USV Iaşi
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-22 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): CSM Adjud 1.28 — USV Iaşi 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.0% · Probability edge: +4.8 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga III - Serie 1 Liga III - Serie 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 CSM FC Vaslui 6 5 1 0 16
2 USV Iaşi 6 5 1 0 16
3 CSM Adjud 6 4 1 1 13
4 Odorheiu Secuiesc 6 2 4 0 10
5 FC Bacău II 6 3 1 2 10
6 Aerostar Bacau 6 3 0 3 9
7 Târgu Secuiesc 6 2 2 2 8
8 Bradul Putna 6 2 1 3 7
9 Gheorgheni 6 2 0 4 6
10 Viitorul Curiţa 6 1 1 4 4
11 Paşcani 6 0 1 5 1
12 Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bradul Putna 6 16 12 +4 7
2 CSM FC Vaslui 6 15 6 +9 16
3 CSM Adjud 6 14 6 +8 13
4 Târgu Secuiesc 6 13 12 +1 8
5 USV Iaşi 6 9 3 +6 16
6 Viitorul Curiţa 6 9 10 -1 4
7 Gheorgheni 6 9 11 -2 6
8 Aerostar Bacau 6 8 8 0 9
9 FC Bacău II 6 8 12 -4 10
10 Odorheiu Secuiesc 6 7 4 +3 10
11 Paşcani 6 7 17 -10 1
12 Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 6 1 15 -14 1
Liga III - Serie 1 Romania. Liga III - Serie 1 Predictions