Predictions / Football / Brazil. Paraense B2 / ESMAC vs Vénus

Prediction Audit: ESMAC vs Vénus Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

ESMAC ESMAC
Sep 05, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.31
1 1.29
xG Accuracy: 85%
Vénus Vénus

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected ESMAC at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 ESMAC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned ESMAC; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 30, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · ESMAC 1.31 — Vénus 1.29
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6140759

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · ESMAC 1–1 Vénus
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Paraense B2
  • Fixture: ESMAC vs Vénus
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): ESMAC 1.31 — Vénus 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Paraense B2 Matches Track ESMAC Next Match Prediction Track Vénus Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for ESMAC & Vénus!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Paraense B2 Paraense B2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gavião 4 3 1 0 10
2 Pedreira 4 3 0 1 9
3 Parauapebas 4 2 1 1 7
4 Belenense 4 2 1 1 7
5 Vénus 4 2 1 1 7
6 Sport Belem 3 2 0 1 6
7 Pinheirense 4 1 3 0 6
8 Tesla 4 1 2 1 5
9 Paraense SC 4 1 1 2 4
10 CA Vila Rica 3 0 1 2 1
11 ESMAC 4 0 1 3 1
12 Altamira 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Belenense 4 14 9 +5 7
2 Parauapebas 4 12 5 +7 7
3 Pedreira 4 10 3 +7 9
4 Sport Belem 3 8 4 +4 6
5 Vénus 4 8 5 +3 7
6 Gavião 4 6 2 +4 10
7 Tesla 4 6 5 +1 5
8 Pinheirense 4 4 3 +1 6
9 ESMAC 4 4 14 -10 1
10 Paraense SC 4 2 4 -2 4
11 CA Vila Rica 3 2 11 -9 1
12 Altamira 4 2 13 -11 0