AI correctly predicted the Marines win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Marines Marines ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marines | 37.5% | 42.6% | -5.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 38.3% | -8.7 pp | Market Higher |
| AS Kigali | 32.9% | 19.1% | +13.8 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates AS Kigali's win probability at 32.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 19.1%, a difference of 13.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Marines win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on AS Kigali.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Marines more conservatively (23.7% vs model 37.5%, 13.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Marines win 2–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Marines 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · AS Kigali 32.9%
- xG · Marines 1.35 — AS Kigali 1.25
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Marines 2.11 · Draw 2.35 · AS Kigali 4.72
- Implied 1X2 · Marines 42.6% · Draw 38.3% · AS Kigali 19.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Marines 2.11 · Draw 2.35 · AS Kigali 4.72
- Implied 1X2 · Marines 42.6% · Draw 38.3% · AS Kigali 19.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Marines win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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National Soccer League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Etincelles | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Amagaju | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Mukura | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Marines | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Police | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Gorilla | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Musanze | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Kiyovu Sports | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Sunrise | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Rayon Sports | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Etoile de l'Est | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | AS Kigali | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Bugesera | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gasogi United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 2 | APR | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 | Marines | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Etincelles | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Amagaju | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 | Mukura | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Police | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Gorilla | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Musanze | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Sunrise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Rayon Sports | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Kiyovu Sports | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Etoile de l'Est | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | Bugesera | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Gasogi United | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | AS Kigali | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
