Predictions / Football / Brazil. Cearense - 3 / Palmacia vs Pacatuba

Prediction Audit: Palmacia vs Pacatuba Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

⚽
Palmacia
Aug 30, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 68%
Pacatuba Pacatuba

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Palmacia at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Palmacia Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Pacatuba higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Pacatuba -24.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Palmacia 36.1% 20.5% +15.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 20.4% +9.3 pp Model Higher
Pacatuba 34.2% 59.2% -24.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Pacatuba's win probability at 59.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 24.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Palmacia; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Palmacia by 24.9 percentage points (61.0% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 30, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Palmacia 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Pacatuba 34.2%
    • xG · Palmacia 1.32 — Pacatuba 1.28
  2. Aug 30, 2026 · 17:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Palmacia 6.25 · Draw 3.75 · Pacatuba 1.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Palmacia 14.3% · Draw 23.9% · Pacatuba 61.8%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Aug 30, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Palmacia 4.34 · Draw 4.36 · Pacatuba 1.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Palmacia 20.5% · Draw 20.4% · Pacatuba 59.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 30, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (25 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 26, 2026 · 02:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5505212

Closing Odds 1.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Palmacia 2–2 Pacatuba
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Cearense - 3
  • Fixture: Palmacia vs Pacatuba
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Palmacia 1.32 — Pacatuba 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Cearense - 3 Cearense - 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vila Real 6 4 2 0 14
2 Acopiara 6 4 1 1 13
3 Esporte Limoeiro 6 3 1 2 10
4 Pacatuba 6 2 4 0 10
5 Calouros do Ar 6 2 0 4 6
6 Tianguá 6 1 1 4 4
7 Palmacia 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Acopiara 6 12 7 +5 13
2 Vila Real 6 9 5 +4 14
3 Pacatuba 6 8 6 +2 10
4 Calouros do Ar 6 8 11 -3 6
5 Esporte Limoeiro 6 7 4 +3 10
6 Tianguá 6 6 10 -4 4
7 Palmacia 6 5 12 -7 1