Predictions / Football / Peru. Segunda División / U. San Martin vs Academia Cantolao

Prediction Audit: U. San Martin vs Academia Cantolao Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

U. San Martin U. San Martin
Sep 13, 2026 - 20:15
2 1.38
2 1.22
xG Accuracy: 68%
Academia Cantolao Academia Cantolao

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected U. San Martin at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 U. San Martin Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices U. San Martin higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: U. San Martin -23.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
U. San Martin 39.0% 62.9% -23.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 22.6% +6.9 pp Model Higher
Academia Cantolao 31.5% 14.5% +17.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates U. San Martin's win probability at 62.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 23.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned U. San Martin; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on U. San Martin by 23.9 percentage points (63.0% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 20:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · U. San Martin 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Academia Cantolao 31.5%
    • xG · U. San Martin 1.38 — Academia Cantolao 1.22
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 19:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · U. San Martin 1.37 · Draw 3.81 · Academia Cantolao 5.96
    • Implied 1X2 · U. San Martin 62.9% · Draw 22.6% · Academia Cantolao 14.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 20:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · U. San Martin 1.37 · Draw 3.81 · Academia Cantolao 5.96
    • Implied 1X2 · U. San Martin 62.9% · Draw 22.6% · Academia Cantolao 14.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 20:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7460945

Closing Odds 1.37
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · U. San Martin 2–2 Academia Cantolao
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: U. San Martin vs Academia Cantolao
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 20:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): U. San Martin 1.38 — Academia Cantolao 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Union Comercio 16 9 5 2 32
2 Carlos A. Mannucci 16 9 3 4 30
3 Deportivo Llacuabamba 16 8 4 4 28
4 Molinos El Pirata 16 7 4 5 25
5 U. San Martin 16 7 3 6 24
6 Deportiva Agropecuaria 15 5 6 4 21
7 Cesar Vallejo 15 5 4 6 19
8 Academia Cantolao 16 3 5 8 14
9 San Marcos 14 0 0 14 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 U. San Martin 16 26 17 +9 24
2 Molinos El Pirata 16 25 20 +5 25
3 Deportivo Llacuabamba 16 23 10 +13 28
4 Carlos A. Mannucci 16 22 12 +10 30
5 Union Comercio 16 19 5 +14 32
6 Academia Cantolao 16 19 30 -11 14
7 Deportiva Agropecuaria 15 14 12 +2 21
8 Cesar Vallejo 15 14 13 +1 19
9 San Marcos 14 1 44 -43 0
Segunda División Peru. Segunda División Predictions