Predictions / Football / Peru. Segunda División / Deportiva Agropecuaria vs Union Comercio

Prediction Audit: Deportiva Agropecuaria vs Union Comercio Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Deportiva Agropecuaria Deportiva Agropecuaria
Sep 13, 2026 - 20:15
1 1.28
0 1.32
xG Accuracy: 64%
Union Comercio Union Comercio

The model missed the final outcome (Deportiva Agropecuaria win 1–0).

The model had projected Union Comercio at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Union Comercio Deportiva Agropecuaria ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Deportiva Agropecuaria higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Deportiva Agropecuaria -21.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Deportiva Agropecuaria 34.2% 55.9% -21.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 27.8% +1.9 pp Aligned
Union Comercio 36.1% 16.3% +19.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Deportiva Agropecuaria's win probability at 55.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 21.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Deportiva Agropecuaria win 1–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Union Comercio by 21.7 percentage points (57.8% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 20:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Deportiva Agropecuaria 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Union Comercio 36.1%
    • xG · Deportiva Agropecuaria 1.28 — Union Comercio 1.32
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 19:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Deportiva Agropecuaria 1.58 · Draw 3.18 · Union Comercio 5.41
    • Implied 1X2 · Deportiva Agropecuaria 55.9% · Draw 27.8% · Union Comercio 16.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 20:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Deportiva Agropecuaria 1.58 · Draw 3.18 · Union Comercio 5.41
    • Implied 1X2 · Deportiva Agropecuaria 55.9% · Draw 27.8% · Union Comercio 16.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 20:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Deportiva Agropecuaria win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7460910

Closing Odds 1.58
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Deportiva Agropecuaria win · Deportiva Agropecuaria 1–0 Union Comercio
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Deportiva Agropecuaria vs Union Comercio
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 20:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Deportiva Agropecuaria 1.28 — Union Comercio 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 43.1% · Probability edge: +11.4 pts · Est. EV: +19.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Union Comercio 16 9 5 2 32
2 Carlos A. Mannucci 16 9 3 4 30
3 Deportivo Llacuabamba 16 8 4 4 28
4 Molinos El Pirata 16 7 4 5 25
5 U. San Martin 16 7 3 6 24
6 Deportiva Agropecuaria 15 5 6 4 21
7 Cesar Vallejo 15 5 4 6 19
8 Academia Cantolao 16 3 5 8 14
9 San Marcos 14 0 0 14 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 U. San Martin 16 26 17 +9 24
2 Molinos El Pirata 16 25 20 +5 25
3 Deportivo Llacuabamba 16 23 10 +13 28
4 Carlos A. Mannucci 16 22 12 +10 30
5 Union Comercio 16 19 5 +14 32
6 Academia Cantolao 16 19 30 -11 14
7 Deportiva Agropecuaria 15 14 12 +2 21
8 Cesar Vallejo 15 14 13 +1 19
9 San Marcos 14 1 44 -43 0
Segunda División Peru. Segunda División Predictions