The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Alianza Universidad at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Alianza Universidad Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Universidad | 41.4% | 46.8% | -5.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 27.8% | +1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Minas | 29.2% | 25.5% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Alianza Universidad's win probability at 46.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Alianza Universidad. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Alianza Universidad; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Alianza Universidad by 5.4 percentage points (46.8% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Alianza Universidad 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Minas 29.3%
- xG · Alianza Universidad 1.43 — Minas 1.17
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Alianza Universidad 1.90 · Draw 3.20 · Minas 3.49
- Implied 1X2 · Alianza Universidad 46.8% · Draw 27.8% · Minas 25.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Alianza Universidad 1.90 · Draw 3.20 · Minas 3.49
- Implied 1X2 · Alianza Universidad 46.8% · Draw 27.8% · Minas 25.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Segunda División — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Comercio | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 32 |
| 2 | Carlos A. Mannucci | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 30 |
| 3 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 28 |
| 4 | Molinos El Pirata | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 5 | U. San Martin | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 6 | Deportiva Agropecuaria | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Cesar Vallejo | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Academia Cantolao | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
| 9 | San Marcos | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. San Martin | 16 | 26 | 17 | +9 | 24 |
| 2 | Molinos El Pirata | 16 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 25 |
| 3 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 16 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 | Carlos A. Mannucci | 16 | 22 | 12 | +10 | 30 |
| 5 | Union Comercio | 16 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 32 |
| 6 | Academia Cantolao | 16 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 14 |
| 7 | Deportiva Agropecuaria | 15 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 21 |
| 8 | Cesar Vallejo | 15 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 19 |
| 9 | San Marcos | 14 | 1 | 44 | -43 | 0 |
