The model missed the final outcome (Deportiva Agropecuaria win 0–1).
The model had projected Cesar Vallejo at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Cesar Vallejo Deportiva Agropecuaria ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesar Vallejo | 36.6% | 54.7% | -18.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.7% | +2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Deportiva Agropecuaria | 33.8% | 18.6% | +15.2 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Cesar Vallejo's win probability at 54.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 18.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Deportiva Agropecuaria win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Cesar Vallejo than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Cesar Vallejo; match finished Deportiva Agropecuaria
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Cesar Vallejo by 18.1 percentage points (54.7% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cesar Vallejo 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Deportiva Agropecuaria 33.8%
- xG · Cesar Vallejo 1.33 — Deportiva Agropecuaria 1.27
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cesar Vallejo 1.62 · Draw 3.32 · Deportiva Agropecuaria 4.77
- Implied 1X2 · Cesar Vallejo 54.7% · Draw 26.7% · Deportiva Agropecuaria 18.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Cesar Vallejo 1.62 · Draw 3.32 · Deportiva Agropecuaria 4.77
- Implied 1X2 · Cesar Vallejo 54.7% · Draw 26.7% · Deportiva Agropecuaria 18.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Deportiva Agropecuaria win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Segunda División — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Comercio | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 32 |
| 2 | Carlos A. Mannucci | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 30 |
| 3 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 28 |
| 4 | Molinos El Pirata | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 5 | U. San Martin | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 6 | Deportiva Agropecuaria | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Cesar Vallejo | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Academia Cantolao | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
| 9 | San Marcos | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. San Martin | 16 | 26 | 17 | +9 | 24 |
| 2 | Molinos El Pirata | 16 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 25 |
| 3 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 16 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 | Carlos A. Mannucci | 16 | 22 | 12 | +10 | 30 |
| 5 | Union Comercio | 16 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 32 |
| 6 | Academia Cantolao | 16 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 14 |
| 7 | Deportiva Agropecuaria | 15 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 21 |
| 8 | Cesar Vallejo | 15 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 19 |
| 9 | San Marcos | 14 | 1 | 44 | -43 | 0 |
