AI correctly predicted the Comerciantes win.
The match finished 5–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Comerciantes Comerciantes ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 5-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comerciantes | 41.9% | 55.0% | -13.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.3% | 26.2% | +3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Ayacucho FC | 28.8% | 18.8% | +10.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Comerciantes's win probability at 55.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 13.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Comerciantes win 5–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Comerciantes than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Comerciantes higher (55.0% vs model 41.9%, 13.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Comerciantes win 5–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 20:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Comerciantes 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Ayacucho FC 28.8%
- xG · Comerciantes 1.44 — Ayacucho FC 1.16
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 19:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Comerciantes 1.62 · Draw 3.40 · Ayacucho FC 4.75
- Implied 1X2 · Comerciantes 55.0% · Draw 26.2% · Ayacucho FC 18.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 20:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Comerciantes 1.62 · Draw 3.40 · Ayacucho FC 4.75
- Implied 1X2 · Comerciantes 55.0% · Draw 26.2% · Ayacucho FC 18.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 20:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Comerciantes win · 5–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Segunda División — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Comercio | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 32 |
| 2 | Carlos A. Mannucci | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 30 |
| 3 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 28 |
| 4 | Molinos El Pirata | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 5 | U. San Martin | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 6 | Deportiva Agropecuaria | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Cesar Vallejo | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Academia Cantolao | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
| 9 | San Marcos | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. San Martin | 16 | 26 | 17 | +9 | 24 |
| 2 | Molinos El Pirata | 16 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 25 |
| 3 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 16 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 | Carlos A. Mannucci | 16 | 22 | 12 | +10 | 30 |
| 5 | Union Comercio | 16 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 32 |
| 6 | Academia Cantolao | 16 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 14 |
| 7 | Deportiva Agropecuaria | 15 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 21 |
| 8 | Cesar Vallejo | 15 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 19 |
| 9 | San Marcos | 14 | 1 | 44 | -43 | 0 |
