The model missed the final outcome (FBC Melgar W win 1–5).
The model had projected Atl. Andahuaylas W at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Atl. Andahuaylas W FBC Melgar W ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-5 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atl. Andahuaylas W | 36.1% | 43.6% | -7.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.5% | +2.1 pp | Aligned |
| FBC Melgar W | 34.2% | 28.9% | +5.4 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Atl. Andahuaylas W's win probability at 43.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was FBC Melgar W win 1–5.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Atl. Andahuaylas W. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Atl. Andahuaylas W by 7.5 percentage points (43.6% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Atl. Andahuaylas W 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · FBC Melgar W 34.2%
- xG · Atl. Andahuaylas W 1.32 — FBC Melgar W 1.28
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Atl. Andahuaylas W 2.05 · Draw 3.25 · FBC Melgar W 3.10
- Implied 1X2 · Atl. Andahuaylas W 43.6% · Draw 27.5% · FBC Melgar W 28.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Atl. Andahuaylas W 2.05 · Draw 3.25 · FBC Melgar W 3.10
- Implied 1X2 · Atl. Andahuaylas W 43.6% · Draw 27.5% · FBC Melgar W 28.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result FBC Melgar W win · 1–5
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Women — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. de Deportes W | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 28 |
| 2 | Atl. Andahuaylas W | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal W | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 |
| 4 | Alianza Lima W | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Yanapuma W | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | FBC Melgar W | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Flamengo FBC W | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Defensores W | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | UNSAAC W | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 10 | Killas W | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| 11 | Carlos Mannucci W | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. de Deportes W | 10 | 55 | 4 | +51 | 28 |
| 2 | Sporting Cristal W | 10 | 30 | 9 | +21 | 21 |
| 3 | Alianza Lima W | 10 | 26 | 7 | +19 | 20 |
| 4 | Flamengo FBC W | 10 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 11 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar W | 10 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Yanapuma W | 10 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 16 |
| 7 | Atl. Andahuaylas W | 10 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 25 |
| 8 | Killas W | 10 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 5 |
| 9 | Defensores W | 10 | 11 | 29 | -18 | 7 |
| 10 | UNSAAC W | 10 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 6 |
| 11 | Carlos Mannucci W | 10 | 4 | 43 | -39 | 4 |
