The model missed the final outcome (Club Guarani win 0–1).
The model had projected Sportivo Trinidense at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Sportivo Trinidense Club Guarani ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportivo Trinidense | 39.0% | 42.9% | -3.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 33.4% | 29.9% | +3.4 pp | Aligned |
| Club Guarani | 27.7% | 27.1% | +0.5 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Club Guarani win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 2.08, 1 goals)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Sportivo Trinidense; match finished Club Guarani
Market lesson
The full-time result was Club Guarani win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sportivo Trinidense 38.9% · Draw 33.4% · Club Guarani 27.7%
- xG · Sportivo Trinidense 1.15 — Club Guarani 0.93
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sportivo Trinidense 2.22 · Draw 3.18 · Club Guarani 3.51
- Implied 1X2 · Sportivo Trinidense 42.9% · Draw 29.9% · Club Guarani 27.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sportivo Trinidense 2.22 · Draw 3.18 · Club Guarani 3.51
- Implied 1X2 · Sportivo Trinidense 42.9% · Draw 29.9% · Club Guarani 27.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Club Guarani win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Division Profesional - Clausura — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | Olimpia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 5 | Club Guarani | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteno | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 11 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 11 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Cerro Porteno | 11 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 | Club Guarani | 12 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 9 | Rubio NU | 12 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 7 |
| 11 | Sportivo Luqueno | 12 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 11 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 1 |
