AI correctly predicted the Libertad Asuncion win.
The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 0-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 de Mayo | 29.4% | 23.5% | +5.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 33.4% | 30.3% | +3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Libertad Asuncion | 37.1% | 46.2% | -9.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Libertad Asuncion's win probability at 46.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Libertad Asuncion win 0–2).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Libertad Asuncion. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 2.09, 2 goals)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Libertad Asuncion higher (46.1% vs model 37.1%, 9.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Libertad Asuncion win 0–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 2 de Mayo 29.4% · Draw 33.4% · Libertad Asuncion 37.2%
- xG · 2 de Mayo 0.97 — Libertad Asuncion 1.12
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 2 de Mayo 4.04 · Draw 3.14 · Libertad Asuncion 2.06
- Implied 1X2 · 2 de Mayo 23.5% · Draw 30.3% · Libertad Asuncion 46.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 2 de Mayo 4.04 · Draw 3.14 · Libertad Asuncion 2.06
- Implied 1X2 · 2 de Mayo 23.5% · Draw 30.3% · Libertad Asuncion 46.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Libertad Asuncion win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Division Profesional - Clausura — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | Olimpia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 5 | Club Guarani | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteno | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 11 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 11 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Cerro Porteno | 11 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 | Club Guarani | 12 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 9 | Rubio NU | 12 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 7 |
| 11 | Sportivo Luqueno | 12 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 11 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 1 |
