Predictions / Football / Paraguay. Division Profesional - Clausura / Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs 2 de Mayo

Prediction Audit: Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs 2 de Mayo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Club Sp. San Lorenzo Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Sep 05, 2026 - 21:30
1 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 76%
2 de Mayo 2 de Mayo

The model missed the final outcome (2 de Mayo win 1–2).

The model had projected Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2 de Mayo ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Club Sp. San Lorenzo; match finished 2 de Mayo

Market lesson

The full-time result was 2 de Mayo win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 02, 2026 · 01:07 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1.30 — 2 de Mayo 1.30
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result 2 de Mayo win · 1–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 04:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6170304

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result 2 de Mayo win · Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–2 2 de Mayo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division Profesional - Clausura
  • Fixture: Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs 2 de Mayo
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 21:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1.3 — 2 de Mayo 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division Profesional - Clausura Division Profesional - Clausura — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Libertad Asuncion 11 7 2 2 23
2 Nacional Asuncion 12 6 4 2 22
3 2 de Mayo 12 6 4 2 22
4 Olimpia 11 7 1 3 22
5 Club Guarani 12 5 5 2 20
6 Sportivo Ameliano 12 4 6 2 18
7 Sportivo Trinidense 11 5 2 4 17
8 Cerro Porteno 11 5 2 4 17
9 Sportivo Luqueno 12 4 1 7 13
10 Rubio NU 12 2 3 7 9
11 Deportivo Recoleta 11 2 1 8 7
12 Club Sp. San Lorenzo 11 0 1 10 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Olimpia 11 20 9 +11 22
2 Nacional Asuncion 12 19 7 +12 22
3 Libertad Asuncion 11 19 12 +7 23
4 Sportivo Trinidense 11 18 10 +8 17
5 Cerro Porteno 11 14 10 +4 17
6 2 de Mayo 12 14 13 +1 22
7 Sportivo Ameliano 12 14 13 +1 18
8 Club Guarani 12 13 9 +4 20
9 Rubio NU 12 13 23 -10 9
10 Deportivo Recoleta 11 13 24 -11 7
11 Sportivo Luqueno 12 12 21 -9 13
12 Club Sp. San Lorenzo 11 3 21 -18 1