The model missed the final outcome (Belasica win 1–3).
The model had projected Osogovo at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Osogovo Belasica ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osogovo | 36.6% | 25.4% | +11.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.0% | +0.6 pp | Aligned |
| Belasica | 33.8% | 45.5% | -11.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Belasica's win probability at 45.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Belasica win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Belasica than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Osogovo; match finished Belasica
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Osogovo by 11.8 percentage points (48.4% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Osogovo 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Belasica 33.8%
- xG · Osogovo 1.33 — Belasica 1.27
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Osogovo 3.49 · Draw 3.06 · Belasica 1.95
- Implied 1X2 · Osogovo 25.4% · Draw 29.0% · Belasica 45.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Osogovo 3.49 · Draw 3.06 · Belasica 1.95
- Implied 1X2 · Osogovo 25.4% · Draw 29.0% · Belasica 45.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Belasica win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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