AI correctly predicted the Deportivo Ayense win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Deportivo Ayense Deportivo Ayense ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Ayense | 45.3% | 74.8% | -29.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.9% | 17.1% | +11.8 pp | Model Edge |
| Huracanes Izcalli | 25.8% | 8.2% | +17.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Deportivo Ayense's win probability at 74.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.3%, a difference of 29.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Deportivo Ayense win 2–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Deportivo Ayense attacking xG significantly stronger (1.51 vs 1.09)
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Deportivo Ayense higher (74.7% vs model 45.3%, 29.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Deportivo Ayense win 2–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportivo Ayense 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Huracanes Izcalli 25.8%
- xG · Deportivo Ayense 1.51 — Huracanes Izcalli 1.09
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Ayense 1.20 · Draw 5.25 · Huracanes Izcalli 11.00
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Ayense 74.8% · Draw 17.1% · Huracanes Izcalli 8.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Ayense 1.20 · Draw 5.25 · Huracanes Izcalli 11.00
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Ayense 74.8% · Draw 17.1% · Huracanes Izcalli 8.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 00:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Deportivo Ayense win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (29 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Premier Serie B — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing de Veracruz 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Celaya 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul Lagunas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Deportivo Ayense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Internacional Laguna | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Irapuato II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Heroes de Zaci 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Gorilas de Juanacatlan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Huracanes Izcalli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Atletico Hidalgo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing de Veracruz 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | Celaya 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul Lagunas | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Deportivo Ayense | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Internacional Laguna | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Irapuato II | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Gorilas de Juanacatlan | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Heroes de Zaci 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Huracanes Izcalli | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 10 | Atletico Hidalgo | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
