Prediction Audit: Shams Azar Qazvin vs Gol Gohar Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Shams Azar Qazvin

Sep 10, 2026 - 15:30

2 1.28

3 1.32

xG Accuracy: 52%

Gol Gohar

AI correctly predicted the Gol Gohar win.

The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Gol Gohar Gol Gohar ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Shams Azar Qazvin	34.2%	23.4%	+10.8 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.6%	37.7%	-8.1 pp	Market Higher
Gol Gohar	36.1%	38.9%	-2.7 pp	Aligned

The statistical model estimates Shams Azar Qazvin's win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.4%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Gol Gohar win 2–3).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Shams Azar Qazvin.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Gol Gohar more conservatively (25.3% vs model 36.1%, 10.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Gol Gohar win 2–3).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 10, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Shams Azar Qazvin 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Gol Gohar 36.1%
- xG · Shams Azar Qazvin 1.28 — Gol Gohar 1.32
Sep 10, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Shams Azar Qazvin 3.88 · Draw 2.41 · Gol Gohar 2.34
- Implied 1X2 · Shams Azar Qazvin 23.4% · Draw 37.7% · Gol Gohar 38.9%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Sep 10, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Shams Azar Qazvin 3.88 · Draw 2.41 · Gol Gohar 2.34
- Implied 1X2 · Shams Azar Qazvin 23.4% · Draw 37.7% · Gol Gohar 38.9%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Sep 10, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Gol Gohar win · 2–3
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (11 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 45/100

Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 04, 2026 · 01:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6849170

Closing Odds 3.88

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Gol Gohar win · Shams Azar Qazvin 2–3 Gol Gohar

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Persian Gulf Pro League
Fixture: Shams Azar Qazvin vs Gol Gohar
Kickoff: 2026-09-10 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): Shams Azar Qazvin 1.28 — Gol Gohar 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Persian Gulf Pro League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Tractor Sazi	7	5	1	1	16
2	Esteghlal FC	7	4	3	0	15
3	Persepolis FC	6	4	1	1	13
4	Aluminium Arak	6	3	3	0	12
5	Sepahan FC	6	3	1	2	10
6	Gol Gohar	7	3	1	3	10
7	Foolad FC	6	2	3	1	9
8	Paykan	7	2	2	3	8
9	Nassaji Mazandaran	7	2	2	3	8
10	Chadormalu SC	7	2	2	3	8
11	Fajr Sepasi	6	1	4	1	7
12	Malavan	6	2	1	3	7
13	Kheybar Khorramabad	6	1	3	2	6
14	ZOB Ahan	6	1	3	2	6
15	Esteghlal Khuzestan	7	1	3	3	6
16	Shams Azar Qazvin	7	1	2	4	5
17	Mes Shahr-e Babak	7	0	5	2	5
18	Sanat Naft	7	0	4	3	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Persepolis FC	6	12	3	+9	13
2	Esteghlal FC	7	9	1	+8	15
3	Tractor Sazi	7	8	1	+7	16
4	Aluminium Arak	6	8	3	+5	12
5	Kheybar Khorramabad	6	8	8	0	6
6	Gol Gohar	7	7	7	0	10
7	Shams Azar Qazvin	7	6	9	-3	5
8	Foolad FC	6	5	3	+2	9
9	Sepahan FC	6	5	4	+1	10
10	Paykan	7	5	6	-1	8
11	Malavan	6	5	8	-3	7
12	Mes Shahr-e Babak	7	5	10	-5	5
13	Nassaji Mazandaran	7	4	6	-2	8
14	Chadormalu SC	7	4	9	-5	8
15	Esteghlal Khuzestan	7	4	9	-5	6
16	Fajr Sepasi	6	3	3	0	7
17	ZOB Ahan	6	3	5	-2	6
18	Sanat Naft	7	2	8	-6	4