Prediction Audit: Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Tractor Sazi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Esteghlal Khuzestan

Sep 10, 2026 - 15:30

1 1.15

0 1.45

xG Accuracy: 64%

Tractor Sazi

The model missed the final outcome (Esteghlal Khuzestan win 1–0).

The model had projected Tractor Sazi at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Tractor Sazi Esteghlal Khuzestan ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Esteghlal Khuzestan	28.4%	7.7%	+20.7 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.3%	25.6%	+3.7 pp	Aligned
Tractor Sazi	42.4%	66.7%	-24.4 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Tractor Sazi's win probability at 66.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 24.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Esteghlal Khuzestan win 1–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Tractor Sazi; match finished Esteghlal Khuzestan

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Tractor Sazi by 24.4 percentage points (66.8% vs model 42.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 10, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Esteghlal Khuzestan 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Tractor Sazi 42.4%
- xG · Esteghlal Khuzestan 1.15 — Tractor Sazi 1.45
Sep 10, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Esteghlal Khuzestan 11.75 · Draw 3.52 · Tractor Sazi 1.35
- Implied 1X2 · Esteghlal Khuzestan 7.7% · Draw 25.6% · Tractor Sazi 66.7%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Sep 10, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Esteghlal Khuzestan 11.75 · Draw 3.52 · Tractor Sazi 1.35
- Implied 1X2 · Esteghlal Khuzestan 7.7% · Draw 25.6% · Tractor Sazi 66.7%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Sep 10, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Esteghlal Khuzestan win · 1–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (24 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 04, 2026 · 01:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6849135

Closing Odds 1.35

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Esteghlal Khuzestan win · Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–0 Tractor Sazi

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Persian Gulf Pro League
Fixture: Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Tractor Sazi
Kickoff: 2026-09-10 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.4%
xG (showing): Esteghlal Khuzestan 1.15 — Tractor Sazi 1.45 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Persian Gulf Pro League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Tractor Sazi	7	5	1	1	16
2	Esteghlal FC	7	4	3	0	15
3	Persepolis FC	6	4	1	1	13
4	Aluminium Arak	6	3	3	0	12
5	Sepahan FC	6	3	1	2	10
6	Gol Gohar	7	3	1	3	10
7	Foolad FC	6	2	3	1	9
8	Paykan	7	2	2	3	8
9	Nassaji Mazandaran	7	2	2	3	8
10	Chadormalu SC	7	2	2	3	8
11	Fajr Sepasi	6	1	4	1	7
12	Malavan	6	2	1	3	7
13	Kheybar Khorramabad	6	1	3	2	6
14	ZOB Ahan	6	1	3	2	6
15	Esteghlal Khuzestan	7	1	3	3	6
16	Shams Azar Qazvin	7	1	2	4	5
17	Mes Shahr-e Babak	7	0	5	2	5
18	Sanat Naft	7	0	4	3	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Persepolis FC	6	12	3	+9	13
2	Esteghlal FC	7	9	1	+8	15
3	Tractor Sazi	7	8	1	+7	16
4	Aluminium Arak	6	8	3	+5	12
5	Kheybar Khorramabad	6	8	8	0	6
6	Gol Gohar	7	7	7	0	10
7	Shams Azar Qazvin	7	6	9	-3	5
8	Foolad FC	6	5	3	+2	9
9	Sepahan FC	6	5	4	+1	10
10	Paykan	7	5	6	-1	8
11	Malavan	6	5	8	-3	7
12	Mes Shahr-e Babak	7	5	10	-5	5
13	Nassaji Mazandaran	7	4	6	-2	8
14	Chadormalu SC	7	4	9	-5	8
15	Esteghlal Khuzestan	7	4	9	-5	6
16	Fajr Sepasi	6	3	3	0	7
17	ZOB Ahan	6	3	5	-2	6
18	Sanat Naft	7	2	8	-6	4