The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Fajr Sepasi at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Fajr Sepasi Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fajr Sepasi | 37.1% | 45.7% | -8.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.6% | -3.0 pp | Aligned |
| Mes Shahr-e Babak | 33.3% | 21.7% | +11.6 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Mes Shahr-e Babak's win probability at 33.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 21.7%, a difference of 11.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Mes Shahr-e Babak.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Fajr Sepasi; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Fajr Sepasi by 11.6 percentage points (25.5% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fajr Sepasi 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Mes Shahr-e Babak 33.4%
- xG · Fajr Sepasi 1.34 — Mes Shahr-e Babak 1.26
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fajr Sepasi 1.97 · Draw 2.76 · Mes Shahr-e Babak 4.15
- Implied 1X2 · Fajr Sepasi 45.7% · Draw 32.6% · Mes Shahr-e Babak 21.7%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Fajr Sepasi 1.97 · Draw 2.76 · Mes Shahr-e Babak 4.15
- Implied 1X2 · Fajr Sepasi 45.7% · Draw 32.6% · Mes Shahr-e Babak 21.7%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Persian Gulf Pro League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tractor Sazi | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | Persepolis FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Aluminium Arak | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 5 | Sepahan FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Gol Gohar | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Foolad FC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Paykan | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Chadormalu SC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Fajr Sepasi | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | Malavan | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | Kheybar Khorramabad | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | ZOB Ahan | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 15 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 16 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 17 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| 18 | Sanat Naft | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persepolis FC | 6 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 13 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 7 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 15 |
| 3 | Tractor Sazi | 7 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 16 |
| 4 | Aluminium Arak | 6 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 12 |
| 5 | Kheybar Khorramabad | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Gol Gohar | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 5 |
| 8 | Foolad FC | 6 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Sepahan FC | 6 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 10 |
| 10 | Paykan | 7 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Malavan | 6 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 7 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 5 |
| 13 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 7 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Chadormalu SC | 7 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 7 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Fajr Sepasi | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 17 | ZOB Ahan | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 |
| 18 | Sanat Naft | 7 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 4 |
