Prediction Audit: Gol Gohar vs Aluminium Arak Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gol Gohar

Sep 01, 2026 - 15:30

0 1.37

2 1.23

xG Accuracy: 56%

Aluminium Arak

The model missed the final outcome (Aluminium Arak win 0–2).

The model had projected Gol Gohar at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Gol Gohar Aluminium Arak ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Gol Gohar	38.5%	45.0%	-6.5 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	31.8%	-2.2 pp	Aligned
Aluminium Arak	31.9%	23.2%	+8.7 pp	Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Aluminium Arak's win probability at 31.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.2%, a difference of 8.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Aluminium Arak win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Aluminium Arak.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Gol Gohar; match finished Aluminium Arak

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Gol Gohar by 8.7 percentage points (29.8% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 01, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Gol Gohar 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Aluminium Arak 31.9%
- xG · Gol Gohar 1.37 — Aluminium Arak 1.23
Sep 01, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Gol Gohar 2.00 · Draw 2.83 · Aluminium Arak 3.88
- Implied 1X2 · Gol Gohar 45.0% · Draw 31.8% · Aluminium Arak 23.2%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Sep 01, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Gol Gohar 2.00 · Draw 2.83 · Aluminium Arak 3.88
- Implied 1X2 · Gol Gohar 45.0% · Draw 31.8% · Aluminium Arak 23.2%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Sep 01, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Aluminium Arak win · 0–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 56/100

Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 26, 2026 · 02:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5502562

Closing Odds 3.88

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Aluminium Arak win · Gol Gohar 0–2 Aluminium Arak

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Persian Gulf Pro League
Fixture: Gol Gohar vs Aluminium Arak
Kickoff: 2026-09-01 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
xG (showing): Gol Gohar 1.37 — Aluminium Arak 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Persian Gulf Pro League Matches Track Gol Gohar Next Match Prediction Track Aluminium Arak Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Gol Gohar & Aluminium Arak!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Predictions

Persian Gulf Pro League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Tractor Sazi	7	5	1	1	16
2	Esteghlal FC	7	4	3	0	15
3	Persepolis FC	6	4	1	1	13
4	Aluminium Arak	6	3	3	0	12
5	Sepahan FC	6	3	1	2	10
6	Gol Gohar	7	3	1	3	10
7	Foolad FC	6	2	3	1	9
8	Paykan	7	2	2	3	8
9	Nassaji Mazandaran	7	2	2	3	8
10	Chadormalu SC	7	2	2	3	8
11	Fajr Sepasi	6	1	4	1	7
12	Malavan	6	2	1	3	7
13	Kheybar Khorramabad	6	1	3	2	6
14	ZOB Ahan	6	1	3	2	6
15	Esteghlal Khuzestan	7	1	3	3	6
16	Shams Azar Qazvin	7	1	2	4	5
17	Mes Shahr-e Babak	7	0	5	2	5
18	Sanat Naft	7	0	4	3	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Persepolis FC	6	12	3	+9	13
2	Esteghlal FC	7	9	1	+8	15
3	Tractor Sazi	7	8	1	+7	16
4	Aluminium Arak	6	8	3	+5	12
5	Kheybar Khorramabad	6	8	8	0	6
6	Gol Gohar	7	7	7	0	10
7	Shams Azar Qazvin	7	6	9	-3	5
8	Foolad FC	6	5	3	+2	9
9	Sepahan FC	6	5	4	+1	10
10	Paykan	7	5	6	-1	8
11	Malavan	6	5	8	-3	7
12	Mes Shahr-e Babak	7	5	10	-5	5
13	Nassaji Mazandaran	7	4	6	-2	8
14	Chadormalu SC	7	4	9	-5	8
15	Esteghlal Khuzestan	7	4	9	-5	6
16	Fajr Sepasi	6	3	3	0	7
17	ZOB Ahan	6	3	5	-2	6
18	Sanat Naft	7	2	8	-6	4